Comment by Ben_Hill on Just Lose Hope Already · 2007-02-27T13:49:36.000Z · LW · GW

RBH said: "It might make sense to ignore evidence that you are likely to fail if it is a competitive situation and the evidence comes from a rival who is likely to gain if you give up.

As far as Casey Serin was concerned, that didn't apply. The evidence came from a bank that stood to gain if he succeeded."

There may be a version of Casey out there that suceeded, because he gambled one year earlier than Casey. If Casey had pulled this off, he would have been considered a real estate genius.

Chance plays a large role.