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Comment by blashimov on I Want To Live In A Baugruppe · 2017-03-17T03:01:49.585Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Like: Houston though

Comment by blashimov on Life Advice Repository · 2015-10-22T19:14:10.861Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Do we have a basic financial literacy category? It's perhaps well known to most LW-ers but I know we get the occasional aspiring rationalist high school / early college student and this stuff really isn't taught in school.

Comment by blashimov on A Guide to Rational Investing · 2015-01-27T20:02:39.250Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

So what I'm getting is that if I already am investing in Vanguard, and being reasonable, the added value of betterment if any isn't worth my time? This is what I was trying to figure out today.

Comment by blashimov on 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey · 2014-11-21T18:48:39.287Z · score: 11 (11 votes) · LW · GW

I have taken the survey, including all questions.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread April 8 - April 14 2014 · 2014-04-15T16:29:12.018Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Link: Appeals to evidence may decrease donations among donors primarily seeking warm fuzzies: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2421943 hat tip http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/04/does-greater-charitable-effectiveness-spur-more-donations.html

Comment by blashimov on 2013 Less Wrong Census/Survey · 2013-12-01T16:35:52.601Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

My understanding, you might believe in some continued life after death, something about human souls, any sort of supernatural things, but not believe in a personified interacting deity who gave humans orders like worship me, do this/that etc., nor be a deist who thinks there is such a being but doesn't give orders for some reason.

Comment by blashimov on 2013 Less Wrong Census/Survey · 2013-12-01T16:33:42.312Z · score: 12 (12 votes) · LW · GW

All the extra credit questions!

Comment by blashimov on Intelligence Amplification and Friendly AI · 2013-09-27T21:46:26.561Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

You might repeat Intelligence Amplification here, as I was confused until I read the previous post links.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, September 23-29, 2013 · 2013-09-26T15:02:03.956Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Naive hypothesis: Given the Flynn effect, and that college students are younger than the general population, could that explain the difference? That Coscott's conditional "If US citizens between 18 and 24 are representative of the entire population in terms of IQ" is false?

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, September 23-29, 2013 · 2013-09-26T14:56:59.730Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Wait, what? This might be a little off topic, but if you assert that they lack evidence and are drawing conclusions based on motivated reasoning, that seems highly relevant and not ad hominem. I guess it could be unnecessary, as you might try to focus exactly on their evidence, but it would seem reasonable to look at the evidence they present, and say "this is consistent with motivated reasoning, for example you describe many things that would happen by chance but nothing similar contradictory, so there seems to be some confirmation bias" etc.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, September 23-29, 2013 · 2013-09-26T14:50:50.521Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

[LINK] A day in the life of an NPC. http://www.npccomic.com/2011/10/19/beautiful-day/?utm_source=PW%2B&utm_medium=468x60&utm_content=Beauty&utm_campaign=PW%2B468x60%2BBeauty%2B

Comment by blashimov on Open thread, September 2-8, 2013 · 2013-09-06T19:58:18.036Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I see what you mean.

Comment by blashimov on Open thread, September 2-8, 2013 · 2013-09-06T01:44:28.506Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Fighting has a huge signalling component: when viewed in isolation, a fight might be trivially, obviously, a net negative for both participants. However, either or both! participants might in the future win more concessions for their willingness to fight alone than the loss of the fight. As humans are adaption executers, a certain willingness to fight, to seek revenge, etc. is pretty common. At least, this seems to be the dominant theory and sensible to me.

Comment by blashimov on Open thread, September 2-8, 2013 · 2013-09-06T01:29:15.021Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Really? Why?

Comment by blashimov on Open thread, September 2-8, 2013 · 2013-09-06T01:26:56.161Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Large mammals only? Is a domesticated cow smarter than a rat? A pigeon? Tough call.

Comment by blashimov on Open thread, September 2-8, 2013 · 2013-09-06T01:13:26.558Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Take the leadership feat, and hope your GM is lazy enough to let you level them. More practically, is it a skills problem or as I would guess an agency problem? Can impress on them the importance of acting vs not? Lend them the Power of Accountability? 7 habits of highly effective people? Can you compliment them every time they show initiative? etc. I think the solution is too specific to individuals for general advice, nor do I know a general advice book beyond those in the same theme as those mentioned.

Comment by blashimov on The Rational Investor, Part I · 2013-06-06T20:19:21.993Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

True, so when I finally have money I guess I will take another look.

Comment by blashimov on Stats Advice on a New N-back Game · 2013-06-04T16:32:49.438Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Well, if there's a line between fun enough to play and unpleasant enough not to, learning speed is almost certainly higher for playing the game relative to nothing.

Comment by blashimov on The Rational Investor, Part I · 2013-06-04T15:35:23.333Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Isn't angel investing for the relatively wealthy? What do you do around the 10k range? Especially considering that the less capital you have, the better working relative to spending time investing becomes.

Comment by blashimov on Procedural Knowledge Gaps · 2013-05-21T17:08:45.121Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

For example, this absolutely works with say, an electric stove.

Comment by blashimov on Post ridiculous munchkin ideas! · 2013-05-11T22:25:26.641Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

I am not, but apparently there is at least one person who could.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, April 15-30, 2013 · 2013-04-29T06:24:36.637Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

[link] XKCD on saving time; http://xkcd.com/1205/ Image URL (for hotlinking/embedding): http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/is_it_wor Though it will probably be mostly unseen as the month is about to end.

Comment by blashimov on Problems in Education · 2013-04-11T16:40:58.988Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW
  1. Sure, in this case.
  2. The US is part of the world.
  3. I was expressing my thoughts on a general and common failure mode that I have attempted to correct, and that this article provides evidence I have failed to do so.
Comment by blashimov on LW Women: LW Online · 2013-04-09T16:41:29.475Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

It seems to me that, given people are already sexist, and given that telling someone their group has a lower average directly lowers their performance, such a re-weighting should never ever be used.

Comment by blashimov on Problems in Education · 2013-04-09T04:21:31.650Z · score: 17 (19 votes) · LW · GW

I would dearly like citations for everything - I would really like to know if I am still terrible at estimating how awful the world is.

Comment by blashimov on LW Women- Crowdsourced research on Cognitive biases and gender · 2013-02-12T07:04:16.118Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

You might be remembering the times you are correct more clearly than the times you are wrong.

Comment by blashimov on Rationality Quotes January 2013 · 2013-01-30T01:41:01.257Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

That may be too much to ask for. Besides, if the horse evidence had worked, you'd be forced to turn around and apply it to Jesus...it may not have worked for her, but it has worked on some theists.

Comment by blashimov on Quantifying wisdom · 2013-01-18T11:29:42.190Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

I wonder if this is a slight reaction to another kind of YA fiction, in which adults are useless, often from stupidity.

Comment by blashimov on Rationality Quotes January 2013 · 2013-01-13T07:53:31.764Z · score: 11 (17 votes) · LW · GW

I have always had an animal fear of death, a fate I rank second only to having to sit through a rock concert. My wife tries to be consoling about mortality and assures me that death is a natural part of life, and that we all die sooner or later. Oddly this news, whispered into my ear at 3 a.m., causes me to leap screaming from the bed, snap on every light in the house and play my recording of “The Stars and Stripes Forever” at top volume till the sun comes up.

-Woody Allen EDIT: Fixed formatting.

Comment by blashimov on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 18, chapter 87 · 2012-12-28T04:49:10.207Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Yeesh, I know she at least once remembered the right section and page, then read from the book, and I feel like she's quoted books before, but darned if I can find it easily.

Comment by blashimov on Standard and Nonstandard Numbers · 2012-12-25T05:28:03.517Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, while it was clear on a second reading this was also clear, thanks.

Comment by blashimov on Standard and Nonstandard Numbers · 2012-12-20T20:14:32.952Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

It's even worse than that, depending on how you start, you can easily get 100s of thousands of nodes...

Comment by blashimov on Standard and Nonstandard Numbers · 2012-12-20T20:11:25.985Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I'm going to have to read the proof of the hydra game, because I pretty quickly got over 2.8k nodes and still in increasing...

Comment by blashimov on Wanted: Rationalist Pushback (link) · 2012-12-17T17:49:52.905Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

While I'd be happy to take a look, I have to honestly predict that you won't hear anything you haven't heard before, and you are unlikely to change your mind.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 · 2012-12-11T16:33:02.071Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Anyone who thinks skill points (or any other character ability) is useless in combat gets an "F" in munchkinry. ;)

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 · 2012-12-11T16:31:00.471Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

It depends on what you mean by "disaster" and "over specified." I will add that the IPCC, a body I accept as reputable, predicts a large range of possible outcomes with probability estimates, some of which I think can be fairly categorized as "disastrous." Global warming is a large potential human misery-causer, but not even close to an existential threat. For certain countries, such as the US, it probably won't be that bad, at least until the second half of this century.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 · 2012-12-11T16:28:07.675Z · score: 4 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I believe it is true as an environmental engineer engaged in atmospheric modeling. Atmospheric modeling is a field in which the standard scientific method seems to be working well, that is, there is a large benefit to researchers who are right and/or can prove others wrong. This means that there is a lot of effort going into improving models that are already quite accurate, to the limits of the data you input. For example, the 1990 model of climate change does quite well if you give it better data, and at least correctly predicts the temperature trend with bad data. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/10/1990-ipcc-report_n_2270453.html Similar to comments below, the IPCC is an enormous body, and I find invalidating their arguments to require an implausible conspiracy theory. You can look up the executive summary for the various reports at your leisure, they are quite readable.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 · 2012-12-11T16:13:03.522Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Book Recommendation; Fiction; AI; While this might be the kind of scifi book to merely annoy experts, I found it enjoyable. It surrounds military use of potentially FOOM AI's which are wiped periodically to prevent the foom. Soiler: vg snvyf. It is also part of a series, in which some overlapping events are told from different perspectives, which I also found enjoyable. http://www.amazon.com/Insidious-Michael-McCloskey/dp/1440192529

Comment by blashimov on Collating widely available time/money trades · 2012-11-20T22:50:52.038Z · score: 2 (4 votes) · LW · GW

No, he is saying by buying condoms you avoid the additional work children require. My understanding.

Comment by blashimov on The Case against Killer Robots (link) · 2012-11-20T22:40:06.550Z · score: 0 (6 votes) · LW · GW

Similarly, there was that time US soldiers fired on a camera crew, even laughing at them for being incompetent terrorists when they ran around. Or they just capture and torture them with a poor explanation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/06/us-iraq-usa-journalists-idUSTRE6344FW20100406

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2004/jan/13/usnews.iraq

Comment by blashimov on Miracle Mineral Supplement · 2012-11-20T22:31:17.641Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Frankly, I am surprised you have even Facebook friends who would recommend drinking bleach.

Comment by blashimov on Open Thread: January 2010 · 2012-11-14T18:11:16.502Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

The linked video is set to private? I can't view it. Not a big deal, the transcript is almost as good.

Comment by blashimov on PROPOSAL: LessWrong for Teenagers · 2012-11-08T18:47:12.359Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

24, I would also be willing to help. Several people seem concerned that special effort to reach out to teenagers and help them address their problems will interfere with the status-quo style and quality of less wrong. I would encourage being sure that isn't the case, and explaining why. If it would require current users to wade through teenage problems, I would vote not to do that. But I see no reason we can't expand as per John_Maxwell_IV's comment. http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/fch/proposal_lesswrong_for_teenagers/7sfk

Comment by blashimov on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey · 2012-11-07T00:48:33.649Z · score: -1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I am amused that the "I'm done" comments seem to be random karma generators.

Comment by blashimov on Economy gossip open thread · 2012-11-06T19:40:19.026Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks for suggesting UniversityTutor. Personal Anecdote: In Houston, people will come to me and pay at least $30 an hour for tutoring. I was surprised. I particularly enjoy the light on one student's face when I explained why doing something to both sides of an equation was the only way to get the right answer. I might not have supposed that this was missing if it hadn't appeared on LessWrong.

Comment by blashimov on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey · 2012-11-05T17:43:56.298Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Yeah, I ended up just selecting to the end of the question: then it stayed selected. I would delete the extra words after copy paste. Obsolete point now probably, but worth looking into for next year.

Comment by blashimov on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey · 2012-11-05T05:28:22.533Z · score: 25 (25 votes) · LW · GW

I took all of it!

Comment by blashimov on Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality · 2012-11-03T17:39:40.067Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Which means you might end up with either amount of money, since you don't really know enough about Omega , instead of just the one box winnings. So you should still just one box?

Comment by blashimov on Checking Kurzweil's track record · 2012-10-30T15:57:00.058Z · score: 4 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I will do 20.

Comment by blashimov on Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping) · 2012-10-28T21:47:23.017Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I know I might feel glad because I feel like I have a lot more control over whether I am right or wrong than the relative idiocy of the average person. On the other hand, being a person, I'd probably just be glad either way. The upside of being cynical.