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I agree and I am putting my money where my mouth is.
I will play this game under the rules linked in the OP with me as the gatekeeper and anyone as the AI. I will bet at odds 10:1 (favorable to you) that I will not let the AI out. The minimum bet is my 10 k USD against your 1 k USD and the maximum bet my 100 k USD against your 10 k USD. We will use a mutually accepted LW community member as referee.
If you believe you have at least a 10% chance of making me let the AI out, you should take this bet. I predict no one will take me up on it.
I speculate that the reason that gatekeepers let the AI out is that they do not take the experiment seriously enough. They don't really care about not letting the AI out. Maybe they want the outcome to be that the AI has been let out so that people take AI safety more seriously. I'm not saying an actual superintelligence couldn't do it, but no currently available intelligence can (with me as the gatekeeper).
The bet has been lost. The merge wasn't allowed. https://archive.ph/MDYWF
The share price of Spirit Airlines (NYSE: save) dropped to 50%.
I consider it unlikely that my interactions with ChatGPT 3.5 (that led to my original post) played a significant role as training data that helped make ChatGPT 4 so much better.
Why do you consider it unlikely?
If I was good at memorization (model parameter size) but bad at reasoning then your original post showing up in my training data would help me.
I'm also curious how much of the improvement comes from improvements to the hidden and secret prompt that Openai adds to your Chatgpt interactions. Unfortunately we can't test that.
Also, to be clear, nothing in this post constitutes investment advice or legal advice.
I often see this phrase in online posts related to investment, legal, medical advice. Why is it there? These posts obviously contain investment/legal/medical advice. Why are they claiming they don't?
I guess that the answer is related to some technical meaning of the word "advice", which is different from its normal language meaning. I guess there is some law that forbids you from giving "advice". I would like to know more details.
Edit: This question was answered in a previous comment.
You are implying that it is hard to get Samsung expose. Why? On their website [1] they list several ISINs. Some of them I can buy in through my usual broker. They aren't special.
[1] https://www.samsung.com/global/ir/stock-information/listing-Info/
My problem is that you link libsyn in the post but it doesn't contain all episodes. I was able to find the other episodes but I would still like for the post to be updated.
Are you no longer updating the libsyn version? The most recent episode there is from August 2022 while the other sites have newer episodes.
Is it possible to buy the book as an ebook? Why not?
You can find the previous volumes online at https://www.lesswrong.com/bestoflesswrong .
Do you OP have access to secret (non public) information related to the bet?
The link to the 36 questions is paywalled. I am pasting them here.
- Given the choice of anyone in the world, whom would you want as a dinner guest?
- Would you like to be famous? In what way?
- Before making a telephone call, do you ever rehearse what you are going to say? Why?
- What would constitute a “perfect” day for you?
- When did you last sing to yourself? To someone else?
- If you were able to live to the age of 90 and retain either the mind or body of a 30-year-old for the last 60 years of your life, which would you want?
- Do you have a secret hunch about how you will die?
- Name three things you and your partner appear to have in common.
- For what in your life do you feel most grateful?
- If you could change anything about the way you were raised, what would it be?
- Take four minutes and tell your partner your life story in as much detail as possible.
- If you could wake up tomorrow having gained any one quality or ability, what would it be?
- If a crystal ball could tell you the truth about yourself, your life, the future or anything else, what would you want to know?
- Is there something that you’ve dreamed of doing for a long time? Why haven’t you done it?
- What is the greatest accomplishment of your life?
- What do you value most in a friendship?
- What is your most treasured memory?
- What is your most terrible memory?
- If you knew that in one year you would die suddenly, would you change anything about the way you are now living? Why?
- What does friendship mean to you?
- What roles do love and affection play in your life?
- Alternate sharing something you consider a positive characteristic of your partner. Share a total of five items.
- How close and warm is your family? Do you feel your childhood was happier than most other people’s?
- How do you feel about your relationship with your mother?
- Make three true “we” statements each. For instance, “We are both in this room feeling ... “
- Complete this sentence: “I wish I had someone with whom I could share ... “
- If you were going to become a close friend with your partner, please share what would be important for him or her to know.
- Tell your partner what you like about them; be very honest this time, saying things that you might not say to someone you’ve just met.
- Share with your partner an embarrassing moment in your life.
- When did you last cry in front of another person? By yourself?
- Tell your partner something that you like about them already.
- What, if anything, is too serious to be joked about?
- If you were to die this evening with no opportunity to communicate with anyone, what would you most regret not having told someone? Why haven’t you told them yet?
- Your house, containing everything you own, catches fire. After saving your loved ones and pets, you have time to safely make a final dash to save any one item. What would it be? Why?
- Of all the people in your family, whose death would you find most disturbing? Why?
- Share a personal problem and ask your partner’s advice on how he or she might handle it. Also, ask your partner to reflect back to you how you seem to be feeling about the problem you have chosen.
Could you recommend (or link to a recommendation) of what first aid kit to buy? What should it contain? How expensive should it be? Where should I buy it from?
It is 2022-10-16, roughly one year after the post was made. The S&P 500 has not dropped below 3029 at any point. It is currently at its lowest value since the post was made at 3583.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview
Which resources do you recommend to start learning meditation this way?
This might be "optimal given your state of knowledge about ROB" but it isn't "guaranteed to succeed more than 1/2 of the time". For example:
My prior is that Rob always picks a positive and a negative number.
Actually Rob always picks two positive numbers.
Thus when we play the game I always observe a positive number, guess that it is the larger number and have a 0.5 probability of winning. 0.5 is not greater than 0.5
How do you know the story was written by EY?
There is a certain story, which I will not name here in order to reduce the spoiler-y nature of the following description.
Yes this is the book. Maybe you could put it into spoiler tags in your comment.
Alternative explanation: Your mother did participate in the scam in some way and is too embarrassed to admit it. (You know your mother better than I do. I'm just saying this might have happened and you might not have considered it.)
Thank you for this answer. You also helped make another point of confusion clearer: When I read the op I wasn't sure what the interpretation of number theory is. There must be one or the incompleteness theorem wouldn't apply but what is it?
Based on your comment here I understand this better and it makes more sense why people might disagree about for example the continuum hypothesis being "reasonable". While mostly everyone agrees on the standard ZFC axioms not everyone agrees on the interpretation of ZFC.
Then there must also be hardliners who take ZFC as the truth without interpretation and thus do not allow statements independent of it as they are not provable. It would be interesting to see what proofs they miss out on. (Not requesting anyone to list them for me, just thinking out loud.)
I'd like to use this post to ask a question I've had for a while about the incompleteness theorem and the halting problem but never had a good chance to ask.
When I first heard that that any sufficiently rich formal system, together with an interpretation, has strings which are true but unprovable or that it is not possible to determine whether a program halts, this felt like an amazing and important discovery. But when I think more about the standard proof of the halting problem, or the hear this explanation of incompleteness theorem or the English "this sentence is a lie" example the importance seems to diminish.
Sure, I cannot in general determine whether a program halts but the only counter example is this weird recursive statement that I do not actually care about. Maybe I can determine whether all programs that I do care about halt and ignore this one weirdness. Similarly if the only true unprovable statements are of this form then maybe I can still have formal systems that are complete for all other statements (those that I care about).
At this point my confusion becomes more fuzzy and I'm not sure how exactly to put it into words. It feels important that for the halting problem many systems turn out to be unexpectedly turing complete. Is one answer that it is impossible to determine whether a program is equivalent to the one used in the halting problem proof?
Look for custom form fitting earplugs. I find the generic throwaway ones uncomfortable and wouldn't be able to sleep with them. Custom ones are made based on a mold of your ear and fit perfectly and are more expensive. The ones I have fit snugly enough that I feel no discomfort wearing them in general and only a little when sleeping on my side (with pressure on my ear through the pillow). I've slept with them 5 days of the week for the last half year which has improved my sleep significantly because I am very sensitive to noise. They also work well when traveling.
Previous suggestion on LessWrong suggests that savy uses of PolyMarket don't do that. They would create a Yes/No share pair and then sell the No for a few of 2% of $0.09.
Could you explain this more or link to a previous suggestion? I don't get it.