Comment by Charles Dalton (charles-dalton) on On Overconfidence · 2023-12-24T23:07:44.957Z · LW · GW

1. What is your probability that there is a god? (Svir creprag)

20%

2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? (Bar va bar gubhfnaq)

25%

3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050? (Avargl creprag)

75%

4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? (Svsgrra creprag)

50%

5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? (Rvtugl creprag)

30%

6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? (Gjragl svir creprag)

80%

I feel like I see some of the overconfidence mentioned in this post in the comments section ;)