Posts

Another UFO Bet 2024-11-01T01:55:27.301Z

Comments

Comment by codyz on Another UFO Bet · 2024-11-19T01:57:42.158Z · LW · GW

Charlie and I have made the bet. I sent $1000 on 11/18/24 against his $50,000. Happy betting!

Comment by codyz on Another UFO Bet · 2024-11-07T05:59:21.947Z · LW · GW

Yep, these are good points. Appreciate you engaging in such good faith. Would still like to bet if you're down.

Comment by codyz on Another UFO Bet · 2024-11-06T01:14:36.877Z · LW · GW

That's true in any scenario, though. For all of life really. The ratio of likelihood of loopholes costing you money versus losing the best costing you money doesn't matter, as long as their absolute values are both low. And shoring up ambiguous language in the bet is how you make the former low. 

Comment by codyz on Another UFO Bet · 2024-11-06T01:12:50.747Z · LW · GW

I also partook in some betting last time, but I'd like to do more. I've done more research on this over the last year and built more conviction that this is the right play, that's really all that's changed. Would you be down to bet again?

Comment by codyz on Another UFO Bet · 2024-11-01T20:08:39.531Z · LW · GW

Sure, I hear you there. Is there a way I could reword or clarify that would assuage that concern?

Comment by codyz on What TMS is like · 2024-11-01T01:43:56.090Z · LW · GW

My sister tried TMS and said it made her ears ring. Did you experience that?

Comment by codyz on UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up · 2023-08-22T19:26:45.430Z · LW · GW

Codyz bets Algon according to the terms of this post with 150:1 odds. 

Cody bets $120 USD that UFOs are prosaic against Ali's $18,000 USD that they are not. 

Cody sent the $120 USD today, 8/22/23, via Paypal. Ali to confirm receipt below. 

Comment by codyz on UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up · 2023-08-02T02:46:21.730Z · LW · GW

Hi Algon. I'm interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP's side of the bet, if you'd like to bet more. I'll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you're interested. 

Comment by codyz on UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up · 2023-08-02T02:45:57.020Z · LW · GW

Hi Ted. I'm interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP's side of the bet, if you'd like to bet more. I'll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you're interested. 

Comment by codyz on UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up · 2023-08-02T02:45:00.127Z · LW · GW

Carl, I'm interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP's side of the bet, if you'd like to bet more. I'll also happy to give you better odds than 150:1. DM me if you're interested. 

Comment by codyz on UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up · 2023-07-21T21:16:00.463Z · LW · GW

I'll take OP's side of this bet with you if you're still interested. 

Comment by codyz on UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up · 2023-07-21T21:15:22.428Z · LW · GW

I will also take this bet, on the side of /u/RatsWrongAboutUAP with exactly the same terms, with anyone who wants. I will pay you now, you pay me 150:1 if UFO are supernatural within the next 5 years.