Bayesian Reflection Principles and Ignorance of the Future 2024-01-25T19:00:16.463Z

Comment by crickets on Bayesian Reflection Principles and Ignorance of the Future · 2024-01-27T03:54:28.232Z · LW · GW

Hi! Thank you for the answer. Your answer is a little bit cryptic, though. Could you maybe provide some more detail or elaborate a bit on what you're saying?

Are you in essence saying something like "take the weighted average of the three possibilities and my probabilities that they'll occur" and use this to determine my expected future credence?