Posts
Comments
I think this is absolutely accurate and here's why:
1. open-source will surely beat the big guys. Openai and google do NOT have a monopoly on smart people, there's far more of us that do not work for them. Any smart person who is not allowed on the winning team will simply make their own team win. Therefore openAI and google will be left in the dust in 2 years flat. And I don't see anything stopping researchers from leaving and then just giving their truly awesome ideas to open-source after they take home the big bucks.
2. They have no moat, at least not one that is going to be there for long.
- First mover advantage is not an advantage in every game. America has been king the world ever since they joined WW2 late. And the first movers got the reputation they deserved. As they say, sometimes it's better to wait and let the competition draw a bit of blood before you jump into the fray.
- data moat? nope we got open data. network effects moat? nope, we got github, technology moat? apparently not a very thick one. Entrenched customers? yeah for openAI. But once you're paying for multiple Ai subscriptions and you have to get rid of one... maybe it's byebye openai.
The only moat they have is that they have a lot of money to pay researchers. And they can pour millions into training models. So if they can win by spending more money then that's how they can do it. OpenAI can win by building on top of their user base. But openAI shows no signs of doing that, they are just becoming microsofts toy, and google can pour as much money as they want wherever they want it's not going to buy them something better than open source.