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First, I wanted to suggest a revision to 3^^^3 people getting duct in their eyes: Everyone alive today and everyone who is ever born henceforth, as well as all their pets, will get the speck. That just makes it easier to conceive.
In any case, I would choose the speck simply on behalf of the rando who would otherwise get torture. I'd want to let everyone know that I had to choose and so we all get a remarkably minor annoyance in order to avoid "one person" (assuming no one can know who it will be) getting tortured. This would happen only if there were a strong motivation to stop. The best option is not presented: collect more information.
I have read the condensed version of "The Sequences" in order and this is my favorite one so far. It motivates me to deepen the emphasis I put on how the discomfort of the possibility of being proven wrong contributes to the comfort of feeling that I'm probably right. Updating working assumptions can give us a very pleasant experience after a while because we start to see that we rarely have to do it, but that only works if we create a lot situations in which we might have to do it.
Cancer is an other. A cold is an other. An allergy is an other. Unwanted thoughts are an other. A tremor is an other. There are so many biological processes that are Other that it is easy for me to view bears and AI as part of me just like all those processes are. I have some influence. There is some value to loving the malfunctioning systems and parts of our bodies, appreciating them for what they can do for us when they work "properly", and embellishing the "good" feelings. This salve for the fear of dealing with Other, whether it's AI or bears or groups of people or disease, is just the first thing I wanted to mention.
The second thing is about the bears. Did Herzog or anyone else study the bears after Treadwell and his partner were killed? I suspect it would be in here if it were. Humans kill each other brutally as well. It seems there may be an important side of this story that we are missing. However, you might be right that in the eyes of a bear, a human being is like a possum. Oops, I ran over that possum. Oh well. On the other hand, I have never stared into the eyes of a possum long enough to detect any sense of being-in-this-together. If I did, I might driver more carefully.
As a matter of fact, I do, actually, driver more carefully, and it is because I imagine that the well-fed murderous bear suffers some disapprobation from the other bears, little kids often feel bad about killing bugs, Tibetans actively avoid it, and sentience is precious wherever it may be. Be nice so the AIs don't kill you :-)