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Comment by EternalStargazer on 2014 Survey Results · 2015-01-09T02:32:31.836Z · LW · GW

Birth Month Jan: 109, 7.3% Feb: 90, 6.0% Mar: 123, 8.2% Apr: 126, 8.4% Jun: 107, 7.1% .Jul: 109, 7.3% Aug: 120, 8.0% Sep: 94, 6.3% Oct: 111, 7.4% Nov: 102, 6.8% Dec: 106, 7.1%

[Despite my hope of something turning up here, these results don't deviate from chance]

It would appear 0% of lesswrongers were born in May. Which is strange, because I seem to remember being born then, and also taking the survey.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Three Parables of Microeconomics · 2014-05-28T20:07:56.441Z · LW · GW

If something as simple as this can be considered a cartel, then the entire free market system is a cartel.

The whole point is that companies can only communicate with each other in this manner, and not directly, because that would be collusion.

When I have time, I'll look up the specific legislation, though i suspect it varies by area.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-31T03:01:53.384Z · LW · GW

It isn't, but keep in mind that this is still a pseudo feudal system, which still has existent Noble families with laws favoring them on the books. In a feudal system, that is absolutely how a 'police' (private army) force actually works. If you're the Prince, you can command them. In such a system, it wouldn't seem as strange that the daughter of the house is giving the commands. You'll notice they also all announce themselves by House first.

As an aside, if you are Amelia Bones, and you have to give one person preferential treatment, control, and ease of communication with your Aurors (and by extension, yourself), who do you pick from the group of kids who are making the announcement? Which one do you trust most?

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-30T14:23:05.748Z · LW · GW

Because these are children who have been force-matured by both becoming (kind of fake) child soldiers and death, because the agreement specifically was created by two of said children, because all of the parents have other things to do, because the children are already there, because part of the theme of the first half of this story if you remember was "Children are people too, and not subhuman simply because of their age".

Susan Bones is giving the Aurors orders because it is her Aunt that runs the Auror office. She's basically the stand-in. The kids are the few actually sane people in Hogwarts.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-30T14:19:14.288Z · LW · GW

Yes, that was my point, it's the True Patronus charm that is the exact opposite of AK, the Patronus Charm 1.0 is really a Dumbledore spell. It avoids fear of death by thinking about something else.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-29T23:50:13.081Z · LW · GW

Our direct evidence doesn't completely pan out, because of the uncertainty of the Quirrel reaction, yes. But even without that we have evidence for the underlying theory: ie: AK is Death>Life: the spell and PC2.0 is Life>Death: the spell.

I can post quotes from both of these, in fact, I would argue that the Harry and Moody conversation on Avada Kedavra exists for the sole purpose of including that data in the narrative. Remember, these are Harry's words, a "magically expressed preference for death over life" and the Patronus Charm being cast by "rejecting death as the natural order."

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-29T23:46:33.269Z · LW · GW

But if say third years can, than ones who got their wands early may be able to. And it isn't all first years either.

Plus, it's more about the mindset than the actual ability.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-29T16:18:13.434Z · LW · GW

Even ignoring the rest of the post, the idea of a Green Slytherin based off of Avada Kedavra is interesting for many reasons.

Let's look at some of the implications:

  • Avada Kedavra and the Patronus Charm (2.0) are basically mutually exclusive. In order to cast the first, you must want someone dead for the sake of being dead, and in order to cast the latter you must value all life to the point of denying death altogether.

  • Avada Kedavra and the Patronus Charm (2.0) cancel each other out. We saw this in Azkaban, and at the time we probably assumed it was just a result of Quirrell and Harry's magic going out of control, but on closer inspection it seems that both simply destroy the other, matter and antimatter style, which makes sense considering what type of magic they are created from. A magically created preference for death over life, and a magically created preference for life over death.

  • They both also follow the political lines, as you mention above. Avada Kedavra is more likely to be known and cast by those desperate for someone to hate, and the True Patronus is more likely to be cast by those who are trying to cooperate, simply because those mindsets are more likely to lead to those specific preferences.

  • Now that I think about it, the two groups are also the 'Cooperators' and the 'Defectors' in the Prisoner's Dilemma.

  • The interesting question is if they are going to devolve into standard Green vs Blue political idiocy. If Harry has a controlling power, they may not, but I don't think Draco has progressed enough as a rationalist to be able to avoid all those old lessons yet.

There is probably more here, but I need to sit down and think for five minutes, and do a quick read through of the archives.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-29T15:59:22.567Z · LW · GW

In a previous story, EY posted the penultimate chapter along with an ultimatum: You will earn a Bad Ending by doing nothing, and a Good Ending by guessing, following the internal logic of the story, what the correct solution to this problem is.

The problem could be solved by combining a revelation in the latest chapter with information from an infodump in the first chapter, explaining how space travel worked in universe.

It was in fact solved, and he posted both endings.

This is the danger, that he may do the same thing here, and we must be ready to solve the problem.

I doubt it will be much of an issue however, the raw processing power we have to work with here is much higher, since HPMOR is much more popular than Three Worlds Collide.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-28T22:01:42.961Z · LW · GW

Well, this chapter is just full of delicious puns, apart from the entire plot advancement thing.

Auxiliary Protective Special Committee.

APSC

Absurdly Powerful Student Council.

Daphne worried that Draco would be skinned and turned into Leather Pants.

Draco returns "at the turn of the tide" wearing white (silver) robes. He's Draco the White.. err.. Silver.

Considering the short length of the chapter, and combined with the call forward to Book V's Ministerial Education Decrees, that's a good number of references.

The real question is where does it go from here.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-18T14:22:20.159Z · LW · GW

I think the anticlimax comes from the fact that Harry has basically no agency in the story at all. We get 4 lines of internal monologue, but really, this is Quirrelmort's story, not Harry's.

This isn't because he wins, so much as it is because his winning suddenly in this manner basically invalidates the entire rest of the story. While this might be an accurate rendition of events according to characterization, it ignores almost every subplot, begs the question of why this didn't happen at any other earlier event in the story, and doesn't really fit Quirrell's wistfulness over Harry's similarity yet difference from himself. Obviously that could all have been a lie, but even assuming everything done recently was to bring Harry to the point of matching Quirrell enough for the spell, this doesn't seem like the cutoff. The loss of Hermione's body shouldn't be the Despair Event Horizon for Harry - he was dedicated to getting to godlike power so he could just will it to happen.

Quirrell's knowledge of Ringmione also puts him in the reader's shoes really, it is something he could not have known, unless we assume a lot of things about the story were false.

I suppose a better term to describe the ending is "unsatisfying and plot ignoring".

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-15T21:15:45.034Z · LW · GW

... Interesting, if an incredibly anticlimactic ending.

Is this supposed to be a theoretical future?

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-15T21:06:45.582Z · LW · GW

To save her in order to use her as Voldemort used Bellatrix, to bind her to him with the bonds of love as Voldemort did, because she was a powerful witch to be used as a tool.

Hence the bloodthirst comment.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-15T19:03:00.910Z · LW · GW

He does hide it. In the part in the graveyard where he is talking to Snape while they are poisoning Riddle Sr's grave, he keeps spinning around, despite the fact that the eye lets him see 360 degrees regardless of where it is pointing.

If he's escorting Potter around, everyone KNOWS he'd be on high alert, so they expect to see the thing whizzing around. Then they expect that when it isn't whizzing around, it means he can't see behind him.

And when they try to exploit that, that's how he catches them.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96 · 2013-07-26T17:57:12.139Z · LW · GW

I'm an idiot. I'm not sure why I didn't see this before, except that it was 2 am when I first read the chapter.

I've read the other posts below, but I think we are missing something specific here.

Þregen béon Pefearles suna and þrie hira tól þissum Déað béo gewunen.

Three shall be Peverell's sons and three their devices by which Death shall be defeated.

-Spoken in the presence of the three Peverell brothers, in a small tavern on the outskirts of what would later be called Godric's Hollow.

Spoken in the presence of them. Not by them.

It was spoken to them by a Seer, before they made the Deathly Hallows. Possibly also before they had children.

It's a prophecy and they had two things to do to ensure its completion, create the Hallows, and sire whatever offspring eventually leads to the birth of one Harry James Potter Evans Verres.

Harry's final success over Death will include the Hallows. "...by which Death shall be defeated."

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96 · 2013-07-26T08:28:30.624Z · LW · GW

If you remember Snape's ramblings on prophecy, prophicies are spoken to those with the power to "fulfill or avert them". The thing is, if they are averted, that might just delay it. If Hero 1 fails to take down Dark Lady Example, Hero 2 might try in a decade and succeed. If Hero 1 failed and thereby averted a prophecy he previously heard, does the prophecy latch onto Hero 2? If it does, does the text and memory of the prophecy itself change? Is there just a new prophecy?

This sounds impossible until you realize that we already have proof of atemporal causation in this world.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96 · 2013-07-25T16:58:29.365Z · LW · GW

Neither of them noticed the tall stone worn as though from a thousand years of age, upon it a line within a circle within a triangle glowing ever so faintly silver, like the light which had shone from Harry's wand, invisible at that distance beneath the still-bright Sun.

This is going to be vitally important in the future. Thoughts on what it could be?

Storehouse of lost knowledge from the Peverells is my guess, perhaps their notes or a Slytherin-esque way around the Interdict.

If not, the notes would be enough for Harry to start brainstorming a way around the Interdict.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96 · 2013-07-25T16:08:34.172Z · LW · GW

I predicted this way back in December. It seemed the most obvious explanation for Dumbledore's refusal to take him there.

The interesting thing is the recognition as Heir of the Peverells might open up even more prophecies, about he family itself instead of just about Harry. I wonder, if a Prophecy fails, does it jump to another person or is it repeated?

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94 · 2013-07-14T06:24:11.377Z · LW · GW

Near certain prediction:

Va gur snasvpgvba "Sevraqfuvc vf Bcgvzny", juvpu unf orra erpbzzraqrq va Nhgube Abgrf vzcylvat RL unf va snpg ernq vg, nyvpbea cevaprffrf ner gur va-jbeyq ningnef bs genafuhzna fhcrevagryyyvtraprf juvpu nvq gur Negvyrpg NV jub pbagebyf gur havirefr. Xabjvat guvf, cynpvat Uneel va PryrfgNV'f cbfvgvba, Urezvbar jvyy or oebhtug onpx gb freir n fvzvyne ebyr, hfvat uvf gura genafuhzna novyvgl.

My mental model of EY would make exactly this kind of offhand reference. It is the answer to the riddle about the ring you saw once several years ago.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-10T04:50:33.642Z · LW · GW

Well, he can get as much time as he wants in 40 minute intervals with no breaks in between. Smelly Harry must have been awake at least 1 hour per mark on his arm, unless he has at some point mastered Polyphasic sleep (which is completely contrary to his aberrant sleep cycles as mentioned previously) he is going to be significantly diminished in terms of mental acuity after a mere 24 or so cycles. He would need to spend a few cycles eating. After subjective days without sleep he should be moving into hallucination territory, barring some kind of magical aid. His "useful time" is only between 5:10-5:50 on each cycle, at other times he will be boarding or leaving the express.

It's a moderately good hack, but it isn't of infinite versatility, barring the addition of a bit more cheating to get around the sleep/food problems.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94 · 2013-07-10T04:31:41.460Z · LW · GW

This is the point that I think is escaping many people in this thread. The options aren't as simple as A/A+B in Newcomb.

The map has been stolen. Everything we know about how Time Travel works in this universe indicates that this is a fixed fact that cannot be altered. Who took the map however is an unknown, and while it cannot be 'altered' either, the Effect can in this case precede the Cause. 'Map has been taken' can happen before 'Harry takes map because someone had to' such that B causes A and A leads to B. If Harry doesn't commit to it, B is still true, and so the Map is lost to him. His choices are (Map is Gone, I have it.) or (Map is gone.) The choice 'Map is still here and Hermione lives' is not a valid choice and should be discounted. So, his choices are to benefit or not benefit from the Map being gone.

The interesting question is, if the Twins forgot the Map entirely, how did they remember 'Deligitor Prodi'? Admittedly not perfectly.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 17, chapter 86 · 2012-12-19T14:52:58.070Z · LW · GW

There is a more interesting implication in that section actually.

Light glinted from the reflection of Albus's half-moon glasses as the old wizard slowly shook his head. "I think that would be unwise," Albus said. "For reasons beyond the obvious. It is dangerous, that place which Merlin made; more dangerous to some people than others."

'To some people than others' implies Harry. Ergo, it would be more dangerous for Harry to go there.

Ergo, there are other things in the Hall of Prophecy which would effect Harry.

Ergo, there are more Prophecies about Harry there. We already know or can suspect one, the HE IS COMING one. (Which incidentally I suspect is 'TEAR APART THE VERY FABRIC OF SPACE AND TIME' and that [rot13] Gur Zna Haqre gur Ung, naq gur bevtvangbe bs n ohapu bs gurfr cynaf vf n Shgher Uneel jub unf tbggra nebhaq Gvzr Gheare erfgevpgvbaf. Ur shpxrq fbzrguvat hc naq vf gelvat gb svk vg, be ur qvqa'g naq ernyvmrq gung ur arrqrq gb qb gurfr guvatf gb rafher uvf bja gvzryvar.)

Also from this, since Dumbledore will not take him there, we can assume that whatever it is that Harry might discover there would be detrimental to Dumbledore.

On a meta note, it is also a reason (beyond the many others) for which Eleizer would have had to deny Harry a phoenix. Far too much freedom of movement for the plot to remain on any semblance of rails.

Comment by EternalStargazer on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 17, chapter 86 · 2012-12-19T14:41:12.077Z · LW · GW

He didn't even have to lie. All he had to do was say the thing in italics which he thought, right before the end.

Snape if anyone understands exactly how excruciating emotional pain can be.