Rationality Quotes October 2014
score: 1 (1 votes) ·
the numbers of ebola cases were no longer exponential since mid Sept.
instead they stay almost constant with ~900 new cases per week since Sep.14
This should have been clear to WHO and researchers at least since mid-Oct.
Still they publically repeated the "exponential" forecasts , based on papers
using old data. Ban ki Moon (on 2014/10/09) and Chan(on 2014/10/14) and Aylward
WHO until now puts forward their containment plan based on 5000-10000 new
cases in the first week of december. They didn't correct it yet.
according to Fukuda on 2014/10/23, the WHO-committee on 2014/10/22
on the third meeting of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee
regarding the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa stated that there continued to be
exponential increase of cases in Guinea,Liberia,Sierra Leone
Open Thread, November 1 - 7, 2013
score: 3 (3 votes) ·
in USA they can fill in 20 secondary causes on the death certificates and all
the anonymized death certificates since 1959 are available online from NCHS
in computer-readable form to check/search for conditions.
Irregularities usually appear when there is a switch from one ICD-Code to a new one,
so in 1969,1979,1999.
Other irregularities are often checked, compared with other states,countries,conditions
and the reason discovered
Techniques for probability estimates
score: 4 (4 votes) ·
I just found this with google. I spent much time in 2005-2007 to get experts assign a subjective probability to a severe (H5N1) pandemic with >100M deaths. This was a strange experience. Experts didn't want to give probabilities but
painted a somehow dark picture in interviews.Economists ignored the problem in their models (mortality bonds rating).
Among the few who gave estimates were Bob Gleeson and Michael Steele with ~20% per year.
The same problem occurs in other sciences : ask your surgeon for the probability that you'll die or your lawer
for the probability to win the process or your teacher for the probability that you'll pass the exam or
the candidate for his probability to win the election or the president for his probability of a nuclear war
or global recession etc.
These would be useful information, even if only subjective, informal.
Yet people usually won't give them. Make a better society with people giving probability estimates !