Comment by Ian MacLean (ian-maclean) on Be less scared of overconfidence · 2022-12-23T09:56:44.239Z · LW · GW

It’s not merely a sufficient amount of money. For market intelligence, you’re looking for a sufficient number of participants—or enough people looking for inefficiencies that they get resolved quickly.

You’ll notice the indices are quite efficient (outside of the passive investment bubble, but that’s another topic) while many individual, low-volume stocks are not. Google equity markets will be more efficient than some penny stock. Another good example is the competition in prediction markets. PredictIt is quite prescient often, while certain lightly-used crypto prediction markets have few users (likely due to high barriers to use) and therefore feature far more inefficiencies.

You want a lot of highly qualified eyeballs.