Thank you for this post - I had been waiting for warning signs, I think I will not do that anymore.

Note the post is possibly laced with a bit too many lesswrong/overcoming bias concepts to work for some people without the relevant background (e.g. "looking good to other people" as a large motivation in people's reasoning), but I'm not sure that's avoidable.

But at least significantly increased my short-timeline probabilities, from very low to plausible. And helped my System 1 feel a bit more urgency on this topic...