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Comment by Isma on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-04-23T23:23:02.719Z · LW · GW

Re BTC-PERP, looks like the funding has flipped negative for the last 24 hours or so: https://ftx.com/trade/BTC-PERP.  There are plenty of altcoins with positive funding though, e.g. FTT

Comment by Isma on Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit · 2021-04-04T22:22:59.801Z · LW · GW

And over 30% annually on FTX.com (or FTX.US for US residents) currently.

https://ftx.com/spot-margin/lending

Comment by Isma on Tales from Prediction Markets · 2021-04-04T22:15:25.696Z · LW · GW

"After that, Polymarket stopped making new CO2 markets."

If the hourly information is public, it seems to me that this user did nothing wrong.  After all, the market was inefficient. They got it closer to the real market price.

Comment by Isma on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-04-02T16:18:05.906Z · LW · GW

Really good points, with which I agree.

Coincidentally, Arthur Hayes just wrote about this: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/all-aboard-4d50435190d6

Comment by Isma on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-23T19:37:19.852Z · LW · GW

I think by far the easiest way to trade the US election (for non US persons) was on FTX www.ftx.com

For reference, this is Vitalik's blog post about the US election prediction markets (which of course favors Ethereum-based platforms!) https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/02/18/election.html. It looks horribly complicated. Maybe Vitalik himself didn't know about FTX?

Side note: for US persons,  www.ftx.us is available (but more restrictive).

Comment by Isma on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-23T19:33:26.019Z · LW · GW

The counter-party risk (either from hacks or scams) of FTX seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. The recent growth in the FTT coin reflects this.

I think FTX will continue to grow in the next 6 months, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.

For US residents,  www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).

Comment by Isma on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-23T19:31:43.008Z · LW · GW

"Every hour, each perpetual contract has a funding payment where longs pay shorts if perpetual is trading at a premium to index, and shorts pay longs if trading at a discount. This funding payment is equal to TWAP ((Future - Index ) / Index) / 24. "

Source: https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360024780791-What-Are-Futures-

Regarding the claim that PERP contracts systematically trade above the spot, I'd say that in the past few months it's been true for maybe 60% of the time? It really depends on the coin and the market sentiment. So the funding rate (which updates every hour) can vary a lot or even go negative (meaning that longs pay shorts) a few hours per day. I personally leave PERP contracts for short-term directional trades that I close in less than 24 hours. And so I'd do this arbitrage on quarterly futures [e.g. BTC-0326 is expiring in a few days and still trading at a small premium] so I can lock in the premium for the duration of the trade. At one point in the past few weeks, BTC-1231 traded 20% above spot! Which isn't so unusual in crypto actually..

Comment by Isma on 2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem · 2021-03-23T19:25:06.271Z · LW · GW

Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of the FTX exchange seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.

For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).

Comment by Isma on 2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem · 2021-03-23T19:24:31.258Z · LW · GW

Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of FTX seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.

For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).

Comment by Isma on 2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem · 2021-03-23T19:24:05.308Z · LW · GW

The short answer is yes: you could bet in BTC because FTX pools collateral across all positions: https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360027946371-Margin-Collateral

Comment by Isma on The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster · 2021-01-27T14:57:17.201Z · LW · GW

Just curious, what maintenance margin do IBKR/Ameritrade require for this box spread? 

I suppose they might depend on the nature of the collateral, so let's assume my collateral is 100% SPX.

i.e. if I were to max out the box spread loan amount, what's the maximum percentage that my collateral could drop before IBKR issues the margin call?

Comment by Isma on The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster · 2021-01-27T14:52:11.716Z · LW · GW

This trick gives an interesting way to borrow money for cheap, and I could imagine other uses for it than CD deposits.

The article gives the impression that the only use one can make of the box spread trick is to invest the proceeds in a CD. But one could as well invest them in crypto or to fix their house, etc. Now regardless of the use the borrower chooses, it's their responsibility to make sure they can still repay it soon in case of margin call. I can think of at least 3 ways other than CDs that accomplish this.

Comment by Isma on Tips/tricks/notes on optimizing investments · 2021-01-27T14:41:11.144Z · LW · GW

What is it that guarantees that whoever borrows the stock does so in order to short it? Couldn't they just be borrowing it to go further long?