Comment by Jawaka on When Truth Isn't Enough · 2010-03-22T02:44:33.733Z · LW · GW

There was a three-page version of this joke in all variations in a Mad Magazine. Too bad it's probably not even in the deep web not in the web at all.

Comment by Jawaka on What is Bayesianism? · 2010-02-26T12:55:08.980Z · LW · GW

"A might be the reason for symptom X, then we have to take into account both the probability that X caused A"

I think you have accidentally swapped some variables there

Comment by Jawaka on Logical Rudeness · 2010-01-31T12:24:46.800Z · LW · GW

Try privately arguing with a holocaust denier or a moon hoaxer. The ones I argued with seem to be more arrogant and more hostile the more they knew that they no third party is observing the "argument"

Comment by Jawaka on Open Thread: January 2010 · 2010-01-07T14:10:50.961Z · LW · GW

Like Karl Pilkington?

Comment by Jawaka on Open Thread: January 2010 · 2010-01-07T13:57:43.525Z · LW · GW

I stopped smoking after I learned about the Singularity and Aubrey de Grey. I don't have any really good data on what healthy food is but I think I am doing alright. I have also singed up to a Gym recently. However I don't think I can sign up to cryogenics in Germany.

Comment by Jawaka on Open Thread: January 2010 · 2010-01-05T14:30:16.886Z · LW · GW

I am a huge fan of Philip K. Dick. I don't usually read much fiction or even science fiction, but PKD has always fascinated me. Stanislav Lem is also great.

Comment by Jawaka on New Year's Predictions Thread · 2010-01-05T14:03:32.587Z · LW · GW

China also springs to mind. I have listened to documentary about the Chinese empire and distinctly remember how advanced yet stagnant it seemed. At the time my explanation was authoritarianism.

Comment by Jawaka on The 9/11 Meta-Truther Conspiracy Theory · 2009-12-26T14:40:45.673Z · LW · GW

I suggest you read this

Comment by Jawaka on Two Truths and a Lie · 2009-12-23T13:39:41.718Z · LW · GW

Seems to be related to David Deutsch - A new way to explain explanation

Comment by Jawaka on Fundamentally Flawed, or Fast and Frugal? · 2009-12-22T12:08:49.892Z · LW · GW

the German name for Cologne is Köln

Comment by Jawaka on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom · 2009-12-13T11:30:39.611Z · LW · GW

I feel the same way. I set the probabilities to 25 (not G alone) / 75 (G alone) after half an hour of reading, just because I wanted to have room to be more confident after 2 hours of reading.

Comment by Jawaka on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom · 2009-12-13T11:03:26.610Z · LW · GW

Have you read the counterarguments from "Friends of Amanda"?

Comment by Jawaka on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event · 2009-12-13T02:37:06.188Z · LW · GW


I was thoroughly annoyed by the sites layout and structure. If your main focus is on pictures of the victim and youtube videos, you don't really have a lot of arguments.

Friends of Amanda looks a lot more professional and the main points are much more condensed.

Estimates at three at night, very tired but sober. First tried to read the pro- and contra-sites, but I was too confused by the layouts and didn't know where to start. Then went on reading WP article and was pretty sure about Guede being the sole perpetrator. Read the other sites again and found the guilty-side very unconvincing, the not-guilty-side much better. The not-guilty-side reminded me specifically of the holocaust deniers tactics which I know very well.

Couldn't force myself to read for longer than 30 minutes in total because I am very tired, might read something tomorrow but not expecting to change my opinion at all.

Knox guilty: 25% Raffaele: 25% Guede: 75% Agreement: 60%

After reading the comments, my estimates changed to 10/10/90

I hope this case goes to a European court or something. It really is a shame.