Comment by JWH on Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting · 2024-09-26T10:04:55.785Z · LW · GW

I think it is fair to say that Metaculus' crowd forecast is not what would naively be thought of as a crowd average - the recency weighting does a lot of work, so a general claim that an individual AI forecaster (at say the 80th percentile of ability) is better than the human crowd is reasonable, unless specifically in the context of a Metaculus-type weighted forecast.