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I really like the idea of Promises and just barfed my thoughts below. :)
Very intriguing! I also really like the concept of Promises, how the opening event is a promise for how the story will develop, and you shouldn't fulfill that promise on p15. This can relate to every aspect of storytelling, from the character's motivations and intentions (thinking of these as promises unveils what the character arc's purpose is; eg. character is grieved by death of a loved one, what promise is made to the reader and what is the fulfillment?) to events (guard is shot with an arrow to the knee; implied promise might be that the guard wants revenge (motivation), or learns to forgive and has revelation of the way the world works; fulfillment of that promise might be for the guard to return to the story at a later point and attempt an assassination with only one working leg). Practically, this might encourage an author to begin the story with as large a promise as the book intends to fulfill; the inciting incident. Then a series of smaller promises (like introducing character flaws or side-quests) until the midpoint or crisis event, after which should come the payoff for as many of the promises as possible or useful. Sequels can start from unfulfilled promises introduced in the first story; trilogies are written from a promise that is larger than the first book can accommodate.