Posts

Welcome to EA Brussels [Edit With Your Details] 2020-11-17T17:40:39.591Z
How the Moderna vaccine works, and a note about mRNA vaccines 2020-11-17T17:22:47.384Z
A breakdown of priors and posteriors - an example from medicine 2018-10-01T20:35:19.915Z
The different kinds of confidence 2018-09-30T14:16:06.806Z

Comments

Comment by masasin on How to think about wearing masks / distancing within the household? · 2020-12-04T14:35:07.966Z · LW · GW

It does help. It reduces the amount of virus particles that you inhale, and the severity of the disease. And if you're ventilating well, there's an even lower risk. For what it's worth, I've been on my own since March, and haven't really interacted with anyone else since then.

Comment by masasin on How to think about wearing masks / distancing within the household? · 2020-12-04T14:34:40.542Z · LW · GW

It does help. It reduces the amount of virus particles that you inhale, and the severity of the disease. And if you're ventilating well, there's an even lower risk.

Comment by masasin on How the Moderna vaccine works, and a note about mRNA vaccines · 2020-11-17T23:46:51.131Z · LW · GW

Thanks! I modified the post. Could you take a look?

Comment by masasin on A breakdown of priors and posteriors - an example from medicine · 2018-10-04T19:29:07.227Z · LW · GW

I'll keep that in mind for next time. Thanks!

Comment by masasin on A breakdown of priors and posteriors - an example from medicine · 2018-10-04T19:28:33.059Z · LW · GW

You're completely right here. I meant odds of 3:1 in general, as opposed to when they're a complement. (Also, 90 + 30 is more than 100%.) I'll edit it.

It's only 75% and 25% when the sum of probabilities is 100%, but O(red car:green car) can be 3:1 when 60% of cars are red and 20% are green, or when 3% of cars are red and 1% are green. The remainder are different colours.

Comment by masasin on The different kinds of confidence · 2018-10-01T18:42:01.527Z · LW · GW

Understood. It might indeed be useful instrumentally. That being said, I'm not sure how I would be able to display a different confidence level than I felt without lying (I don't lie). Is it something you say, or is it just your posture etc? Or is there something else?

Comment by masasin on The different kinds of confidence · 2018-10-01T03:31:24.969Z · LW · GW

In the context of this post, your confidence in your absolute skill is the same.

When interviewing, you're comparing yourself to people who have applied (the fact that you got an interview indicates that you might be more suitable than most of the applicants), and maybe to the other interviewees too.

When you start the new job, on the other hand, your relative skill is probably about the same, but your instrumental skill is much lower than the other employees' because you don't know the systems/tools/jargon that the company uses. You'd need to learn new things, ask questions, and get feedback to get up to speed.