Comment by mattrix on Thoughts on AI 2027 · 2025-04-10T12:13:47.064Z · LW · GW

I think the idea here is to bin things into fairly specific narratives. Even if you think there’s an 80% chance of some kind of obstacle, you can end up with 20% no obstacle, 10% obstacle A, 10% obstacle B, 10% obstacle C, etc and thus no obstacle being the mode.