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Is that not just Conditional Probability? Your overall P(doom) is 6%, but your P(doom|something) is 3%, and your P(doom|something_else) is 15%. If you need something more complex you could draw a probability tree.
I think there are a lot of cohabitive games that are focused on building (i.e Minecraft is one of the most popular games of all time). The thing that feels missing to me here is... gamey-ness. I think people have "criticized" Minecraft for being unclear what the point is, and being more of a toy or sandbox than a "game."
One of the things I'm particularly interested here is games that specifically reward your choices of how to prioritize negotiation, conflict, and building, and that give you something of a measureable outcome you can improve on. Minecraft has a very vague version of this, determined entirely by what you / other-players think is cool.
There is a game that sort of does what you are looking for here: Eco. Imagine Minecraft, except: The world and resources are limited in size, players can specialize in skills and trade with each other using player-made currencies, logistics matter, and you can create a government and arbitrary laws. On top of all that, a meteor is threatening to destroy the world in 30 real-world days, unless you can progress technology enough to build lasers to shoot it down. And you need to do all that without destroying the world due to pollution and global warming.
The dynamics of the game give people different options for what kinds of goals they want to pursue. I tend to ruthlessly pursue whatever is most profitable. Most people just like getting enough resources to build neat houses and interact with the economy. Some like building a functional government, or creating infrastructure (roads, mostly). It's still basically a sandbox game, but one where it's easy to create your own varied goals and see how well you've achieved them.
It's a game that's both utterly unique and very compelling for certain kinds of people.
Dark chocolate has a significant amount of caffeine in it. If you used 100% Cacao powder, 36g can contain as much as 80mg of caffeine, which is about as much as a cup of coffee. Caffeine can suppress hunger and acts as a diuretic - two things which might affect your weight on the days you had chocolate.
The amount of caffeine could be less depending on the exact mix of coco powder vs coco butter in the chocolate you used.