Comment by Michael Townsend (michael-townsend) on Warning Shots Probably Wouldn't Change The Picture Much · 2022-10-07T01:28:37.373Z · LW · GW

I think it's possible the competence of government in a given domain is fairly arbitrary/contingent (with its difficulty being a factor among many others). If true, instead of looking at domains similar to AGI-risk as a reference class, it'd be better to analyse which factors tend to make government more/less competent in general, and use that to inform policy development/advocacy addressing AGI risk.