Comment by NeilDullaghan on By what metric do you judge a reference class? · 2021-12-29T14:18:59.055Z · LW · GW

I wrote a "how to" guide for picking a reference class here. Would be interested in any feedback from experienced forecasters. I haven't posted it because the example I work through is part of an upcoming, but as yet unpublished, piece of research I'm working on.