Comment by Neophyte_Bayesian on Points of Departure · 2008-09-10T02:14:32.000Z · LW · GW

"Hollywood Economics" by Arthur De Vany. He's a retired professor of economics and shows how box office returns are Pareto distributed. Fat tail, Black Swans. Not predictable, "sure things" that they so often want us to believe. The only thing Hollywood is good and predicable at is blowing investor cash.