Comment by niobium on Politics is the Mind-Killer · 2024-12-17T15:29:51.364Z · LW · GW

There's something called plausible reasoning (or statistical inference) that is well explained in Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (by E.T. Jaynes). It's something that happens everyday in our minds when we try to evaluate the plausibility ("how probable is this") of a thing. For example, if I take the free coffee available at my work, I'm never 100% sure that it's coffee inside the pot. When I pour it in my glass, the liquid is brownish, so I get more confident, but I'm still not 100% sure it's coffee.

The same happens when we see a politician talking on TV. We often say "nah, he is a leftist I don't give a darn about what's he's gonna say".

Of course we could also have a conversation about whether these inferences save us time (and are indeed useful). In fact, one could argue that not hearing what the leftist is going to say, saves us time and this time can be allocated to another useful activity.

Note: I said leftist, but I could have said "right-wing", or "center". Please don't be offended!