Comment by Original_Seeing on Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Summary · 2020-03-18T13:54:38.490Z · LW · GW

Have you read the report and is it worth $10 ?

Comment by Original_Seeing on Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Summary · 2020-03-18T13:42:04.816Z · LW · GW

If a person doesn't have health insurance, then is now the time to sign up for temporary health insurance to avoid getting slammed in case you have to go to the emergency room in the future?

Comment by Original_Seeing on COVID-19's Household Secondary Attack Rate Is Unknown · 2020-03-17T15:53:01.416Z · LW · GW

Hey group house Berkeley people, what procedures are you guys setting up?

Comment by Original_Seeing on Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Summary · 2020-03-16T21:06:17.761Z · LW · GW

The one potential downside of copper is that it may have reduced efficacy when cleaned multiple times using normal cleaning products.

In a study where copper surfaces were inoculated with bacteria in 1% solutions of albumin, dried, and subsequently cleaned with 70% ethanol or 1% sodium hypochlorite, there was a build-up of residues and a concomitant decrease in killing efficiency (1). On the other hand, it was reported that copper surfaces remained active when soiled (42). Also, it was found that there was no reduction in killing efficiency over 30 cycles of bacterial inoculation, followed by cleaning with a 1% nonionic detergent solution (M. Solioz and C. Molteni, unpublished observations).

Comment by Original_Seeing on A practical out-of-the-box solution to slow down COVID-19: Turn up the heat · 2020-03-16T19:39:24.131Z · LW · GW

The rate of change being exponential is an extremely important point. The original rate of spread in Wuhan was a doubling every 2 days. If we set another area follows the same rate, then the difference between 32 cases and 4096 cases is just waiting 2 weeks.

Comment by Original_Seeing on When to Reverse Quarantine and Other COVID-19 Considerations · 2020-03-13T20:42:18.293Z · LW · GW

I added this to the google doc.

Comment by Original_Seeing on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-13T17:27:55.295Z · LW · GW

Depends on what kind of bleach it is, but many chemicals commonly called bleaches are very strong. Hydrogen Peroxide is broad-spectrum and very effective.

Comment by Original_Seeing on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-12T18:15:44.569Z · LW · GW

An accurate count of how many people are infected may be a highest priority. Since the virus has exponential growth, the difference between a known count of 10 infected vs 100 infected is massive in terms of policy decisions. Undercounting is extremely dangerous to the entire population.

This could change once the number of infected patients gets very high, but we may not have seen numbers high enough to justify that anywhere outside of China yet.

Comment by Original_Seeing on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-12T18:04:29.285Z · LW · GW lists a lot of different disinfectants.

3-4 is decent. 4+ is good.

Do you have any disinfectants at all?

Comment by Original_Seeing on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-12T17:58:31.690Z · LW · GW

A downside of using copper may be that exposing it to disinfectants could lead to a decrease in its efficacy. Ethanol is listed specifically.


The claimed exception to this is "a 1% nonionic detergent solution".

Comment by Original_Seeing on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-12T17:36:44.972Z · LW · GW

A strong preventative measure I haven't been hearing people talk about in general is constant cleaning of commonly touched surfaces. In workplaces and homes, this may be more valuable than encouraging people to wash their hands very often.

The Coronavirus can persist on steel, metal, wood, and plastic for up to 4 days according to the link below. Cleaning surfaces several times per day with an appropriate cleaning agent would therefore be highly valuable to implement.

There's not much point in constantly washing your hands if your office/home's front doorknob is spreading the virus to every person who touches it for 4 days in a row.

The SARS-CoVStrain P9 and HCOV listings in the link below are (I think) the best examples to look at. Best cleaning agents are those with 4+ "Reduction of viral infectivity (log10)" on the 2nd table.

Comment by Original_Seeing on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-12T17:22:18.076Z · LW · GW

There are some articles today about people trying out a drug called remdesivir

Comment by Original_Seeing on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2020-03-12T17:17:07.894Z · LW · GW

What would be the appropriate dose of Vitamin D?

The large effects on children is an odd example (poor example?) to point at since children have been reported to have the least harm from COVID-19.

Comment by Original_Seeing on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2020-03-12T17:12:58.097Z · LW · GW

The document referring to copper that I found via SSC was .

The time of contact killing listed among the different microbes ranges from 1 minute to over a week. I don't know which example of a microbe would be closest to copper.

One big problem that may exist with using copper that I came across is that copper may reduce in efficacy if it is frequently cleaned, whereas stainless steel is fine to repeatedly clean. Source

The cleaner suggested to be used on copper surfaces without reducing its efficacy by this paper .

Comment by Original_Seeing on The Intelligent Social Web · 2019-06-26T16:01:35.872Z · LW · GW

" A few months later he told me he’d converted. Last I heard they had moved to Utah. "

This seems more easily explainable as a Crony Belief. The new belief was very valuable and useful to him, therefore it was adopted as true.

Its value as an epistemic belief plummeted as its value as a crony belief soared since the existence or non-existence of god doesn't have value to people's everyday lives (in the way that an armed robber or cancer diagnosis does).

Comment by Original_Seeing on Mythic Mode · 2019-06-26T15:31:07.842Z · LW · GW

Val, do you know of any lists of good mythic mode roles that a person could inhabit?

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~


I've often strongly desired an alternative version of TVTropes which could be called RealityTropes. Much of what you're referring to above would be on that webpage.

Within the mythic mode framework, the hero's journey is a known living story and role. It exists in both mythic mode and fiction, but not all roles that exist in fiction actually exist in mythic mode and not all that exist in mythic mode exist in fiction. (Or easily accessible fiction.) Much or maybe even most of wouldn't exist on

History books, honest documentaries, mythology, and religious texts would give more access to mythic mode roles and RealityTropes information.

I still want a better and drastically more complete list though. And I especially want a proper real list of the life paths and patterns of reality that exist which people can be living inside of or end up living in the future. Good and bad.

Requiem for a Dream is a cautionary tale of the dark and horrifying path that taking drugs can lead someone down. It's fiction and obviously embellished, but the truth that can be found in it seems extremely valuable for someone who might consider that lifestyle. How many possible real-life failure-modes like that really exist? It would be really nice to get a list of them to look at and double check every once in a while instead of having to become a better and better rationalist just to fight back against the tide.

Comment by Original_Seeing on On Having Enough Socks · 2019-06-14T14:25:22.449Z · LW · GW

Also, 1 sock lost is automatically 1 pair of socks lost since they can only function in pairs. Although only odd numbers of identical socks lost result in a pair of socks being lost.

Socks can also get lost by having a pair of identical socks not be identified when they are both stored in Lost Socks storage space.

Malice can also be a factor. My brother was afraid that there was an evil clown that lived under his bed and stole his socks. He is a lousy person so my sister would occasionally steal a sock from him.

Comment by Original_Seeing on What should rationalists think about the recent claims that air force pilots observed UFOs? · 2019-05-28T21:32:48.050Z · LW · GW

This would only follow if the UFOs spotted today were 30 years more advanced than the UFOs spotted 30 years ago. Also, the UFOs spotted 30 years ago should be the equivalent of modern tech-ish.

Comment by Original_Seeing on Rest Days vs Recovery Days · 2019-04-19T14:56:29.355Z · LW · GW

Do you think this is likely more effective to implement on Saturdays or Sundays?

Comment by Original_Seeing on [April Fools] User GPT2 is Banned · 2019-04-03T16:14:09.546Z · LW · GW

Should the accused not at least have the right to make one reply in its defense?!?

My favorite was this reply. I had to sit down for a minute to imagine how screwed up a person must be to have an internal conversation like that one.

Comment by Original_Seeing on Dependability · 2019-04-01T19:02:35.823Z · LW · GW

I wasn't comparing a single workshop's worth of time to the OP's results. I was comparing it to the idealized CFAR attendee who leaves the workshop and uses every single technique 200+ times over trying to sort/untangle themself out.

A person who does internal double crux and more once a day every day for a year straight should ideally be far less self-conflicted and generally more motivated and able to take action towards their goals in life.

(For context of what perspective this is coming out of: I've been to their workshop, their mentor workshop, worked as a mentor there multiple times, lived with people who work there, and discussed things about it with employees and mentors far more often than was likely ever practical or useful, etc.)

I strongly agree with "this problem is quite hard" or that we're commenting on an observed result of a long list of factors and activities. If CFAR were the true magic bullet or if someone else found the true magic bullet of solving the motivation and/or follow-through problem, then the world would look very different.

Comment by Original_Seeing on Dependability · 2019-03-29T21:03:24.112Z · LW · GW

Oh, no wonder. I know Unreal pretty well in person then. That makes this post a bit surprising.

Considering everything in this post from a post-CFAR perspective:

1. Makes CFAR look kinda bad since the full curriculum in its totality should ideally untangle a person enough to the point where stuff like this shouldn't be an issue. That could still lend credence towards the idea that this is a skill and something that doesn't have a 30 - 60 minute debugging fix. It could easily be shadow issues though (David Chapman shadows).

2. I want to give an answer to a lot of this because I think I 'am dependable' (assuming that's a skill or not), but it's very hard to articulate. If I was in person with Unreal then I would include a definition of Dependability as "not sucking". The silicon valley workaholics seem to have it in spades at least in their work life. Looking towards a monastery instead is an interesting choice.

I would expect the Army to be the best place to learn this. Putting Play in Hard Mode by Zvi directly into practice is probably a decent low-investment version (compared to the Army or a long retreat/move). There may be an aspect of it that involves consistency throughout the day. Being in a state where you are going from goal to goal to goal is far different than goal to goal to flop to goal.

Meditation may help too. Ideally meditation at times when your mind is really screwed up in an unpleasant way. The harder it is to get even 30 seconds of clear meditation in, the better. But, ugh... I'm circling around what thoughts I have on this area and failing writing out the direct thing. I'll have to think about it more.

Comment by Original_Seeing on Dependability · 2019-03-29T16:48:29.121Z · LW · GW

CFAR has a lot of material adjacent and connected to this. If you are interested in building up the skill, you may find them worth your time.

Comment by Original_Seeing on Dependability · 2019-03-29T16:42:19.321Z · LW · GW

Hanson has argued that graduating with a bachelor's degree signals that you possess the ability to dependably show up on time, sit in a seat for a long while, and obey instructions from superiors. If you can't do those things, then you're going to have a lot of trouble in office jobs.

Comment by Original_Seeing on What I've Learned From My Parents' Arranged Marriage · 2019-03-29T16:10:10.949Z · LW · GW

From your experience of meeting people in the US and within the social groups you have had exposure to, do you think that American parents have the ability to make good matching choices?

Comment by Original_Seeing on Humans Who Are Not Concentrating Are Not General Intelligences · 2019-03-29T15:59:40.227Z · LW · GW

I badly want to know how many people get 100% fooled.

Comment by Original_Seeing on Humans Who Are Not Concentrating Are Not General Intelligences · 2019-03-29T15:47:10.748Z · LW · GW

If true, this could lend a lot of weight to an argument that the new writing portion of the SAT was a bad addition to the test.

Comment by Original_Seeing on The Game Theory of Blackmail · 2019-03-25T20:44:36.482Z · LW · GW

Additionally, the same blackmail can be brought up again at a later date, giving in to a blackmail can be used as blackmail material in the future (ex: giving information to a foreign government), and giving into blackmail gives the blackmailer (and perhaps others) the information that you are a good target for future blackmail