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EY, in this post you glibly liken belief in God to superstition. Similarly, I liken your belief in cryonics to other superstitions.
To solve this debate let us have Peter McCluskey set up another long-dated prediction market on InTrade that no one will actually bother to trade. It will be on whether cryonics is successful in the next 50 years. I'll put in a 0.000001 bid and 3 offer to get things started.
Eliezer Yudkowsky, if you're going to enforce the comments policy then you should also self-enforce the overcoming bias posting policy instead of using posts to blithely proselytize your cryonicism/life-extensionism/trans-humanism/singularity religion.
Eliezer writes, "I therefore decline to entertain the notion that I should provide you with some kind of idealized pure rationality which does not mention the goals that drive me as a rationalist."
Translation: Bias is allowed but only in service of Eliezer's cryonicism/life-extensionism/trans-humanism/singularity religion.
I just think some on this blog religiously accept cryonicism, life-extensionism, trans-humanism, and the singularity. If they truly overcame bias I suspect they would be less overconfident in these beliefs.
Eliezer writes, "I therefore decline to entertain the notion that I should provide you with some kind of idealized pure rationality which does not mention the goals that drive me as a rationalist." Translation: Bias is allowed but only in service of Eliezer's cryonicism/life-extensionism/trans-humanism/singularity religion.
Carl Shulman, I will define arbtirary belief as something presupposed on faith and not exposed to testing.
My neighbor believes scratching off a lottery ticket with his lucky coin will improve his odds of winning. My neighbor's daughter believes Santa Claus delivered her presents last week. And some people believe in cryonicism, life-extensionism, trans-humanism, and the singularity.
Eliezer, enough with your nonsense about cryonicism, life-extensionism, trans-humanism, and the singularity. These things have nothing to do with overcoming bias. They are just your arbitrary beliefs.