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Comment by ozzie-gooen on [Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – Models of impact and challenges · 2019-12-21T14:50:37.628Z · LW · GW

If you are asking if we could effectively use some transformation on their results to get a useful signal, my strong net is “maybe, but barely so.” I know there are cases in finance where poor predictors are actually systematically wrong, in ways that a good predictor could use for updating; but expect that’s for specific reasons we don’t have.