## Posts

Working through D&D.Sci, problem 3 (solution) 2022-01-26T22:18:01.578Z
Working through D&D.Sci, problem 3 2022-01-23T02:49:52.564Z
Working through D&D.Sci, problem 2 (solution) 2022-01-17T17:41:11.258Z
Working through D&D.Sci, problem 2 2022-01-12T22:32:34.325Z
Working through D&D.Sci, problem 2 (preface) 2022-01-01T17:40:45.862Z
Working through D&D.Sci, problem 1 (solution) 2021-12-21T17:42:30.181Z
Working through D&D.Sci, problem 1 2021-12-12T23:10:39.553Z
Depositions and Rationality 2021-11-04T00:10:21.908Z

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on D&D.Sci April 2021: Voyages of the Gray Swan · 2022-01-26T22:18:58.499Z · LW · GW

And here is my impressions after seeing the spoilers and solution.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on D&D.Sci April 2021: Voyages of the Gray Swan · 2022-01-23T03:43:38.938Z · LW · GW

This post should be spoilered. Use >! to hide information that could tip somebody off, which in this case is everything.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on D&D.Sci April 2021: Voyages of the Gray Swan · 2022-01-23T02:51:30.323Z · LW · GW

I wrote my independent work in a post.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Working through D&D.Sci, problem 2 (solution) · 2022-01-19T17:53:10.236Z · LW · GW

Maybe it is. Feynman's abacus story suggests that he (and colleagues) were familiar with lots of specific numbers and that it matters, somehow. Perhaps I should pick up the habit. Or perhaps that's backwards, and there's some particularly useful skill tree that, as a side effect, results in learning to recognize lots of numbers. Either way, just knowing that this is a common thing among the mathematically inclined is worth knowing.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Working through D&D.Sci, problem 2 (solution) · 2022-01-18T00:55:30.646Z · LW · GW

I see. The spikiness is a tipoff that the numbers are being generated by some simple underlying process. I'm still not clear about why primes, though.

I'm guessing the idea is looking out for multiplicative processes, like looking out for the hump-tail shape of the distribution? Multiplying numbers together is an addition on their multiplicities-of-factors representation, so nd6 can never generate a number with a prime factor of 7 or higher. But I'm not explicitly hearing that as the rationale, so it feels like "primes are bound to show up, just keep an eye out for them".

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Working through D&D.Sci, problem 2 (solution) · 2022-01-18T00:44:46.351Z · LW · GW

Thank you gjm and Guy for the responses! It lifts my spirits immensely to know that my work is being received favorably.

Reproduced verbatim so both recipients are notified.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Working through D&D.Sci, problem 2 (solution) · 2022-01-18T00:44:30.969Z · LW · GW

Thank you gjm and Guy for the responses! It lifts my spirits immensely to know that my work is being received favorably.

Reproduced verbatim so both recipients are notified.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper · 2022-01-12T22:34:36.177Z · LW · GW

I've written my independent work into a post. There is also a preface with some explanation as to the choice of tools.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Working through D&D.Sci, problem 1 (solution) · 2021-12-23T15:09:15.361Z · LW · GW

It's great fun! I'm very pleased you are enjoying the posts. :)

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on D&D.Sci · 2021-12-18T04:07:57.760Z · LW · GW

I'm late for the party. I put my blind analysis on a full post, and will be going through all the problems in order.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Depositions and Rationality · 2021-11-05T15:33:56.720Z · LW · GW

Certainly for crux-hunting, you need two people who are fundamentally collaborating.

It has been pointed out to me that therapy is analogous to depositions in a way relevant to your argument: in therapy both patient and therapist are there with the stated purpose of resolving emotional tensions in the patient, but the patient can prove unhelpful or actively oppose the therapist's probes.

I think this is an example of an interaction that is collaborative in principle, but where techniques designed for adversarial interactions may do good.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Depositions and Rationality · 2021-11-05T15:06:56.215Z · LW · GW

"I don't know" can be a accurate. I think the advice is intended against people playing dumb, like Bill Clinton's "depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is" or this witness denying knowledge of what a photocopier is. I know I've pulled this bullshit on myself at least once.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Depositions and Rationality · 2021-11-05T14:57:15.512Z · LW · GW

Using strategies that still work when some people act adverserial with you and try to deceive you is in line with being rational.

I think this gets close to the insight that motivated my post: a part of ourselves often tries to curl into a ball and deny reality to avoid emotional stress, interacting with that part of you is kind of adversarial.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Depositions and Rationality · 2021-11-05T14:52:35.992Z · LW · GW

Thank you for the comment!

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on How to deal with probabilities in the presence of clones? · 2021-09-17T02:53:49.523Z · LW · GW

No and no.

When I appear in the room I observe that I exist, but I couldn't have observed that I didn't exist, thus I don't update.

When a minute passes I observe that I survived, but I couldn't have observed that I didn't survive, thus I don't update.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on I wanted to interview Eliezer Yudkowsky but he's busy so I simulated him instead · 2021-09-17T01:01:40.613Z · LW · GW

This comment did not deserve the downvotes; I agree with asking for disclosure.

It does deserve criticism for tone. "Alarmist and uninformed" and "AGI death cult" are distractingly offensive.

The same argument for disclosure could could have been made by "given that LW's audience has outsized expectations of AI performance" and "it costs little, and could avoid an embarrasing misunderstanding".

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on How refined is your art of note-taking? · 2021-05-20T22:25:59.260Z · LW · GW

To expand on 5:

I may be explaining Scrum for a job interview, and completely forget that the sprint review is a thing. Ask me about the sprint review however, and I can make a cogent case for (or against) the necessity of the dev team being involved (customer interactions are the purview of the project owner! agile methodologies emphasize cutting red tape! or something on those lines).

I use notes as reminders/pointers rather than longform descriptions (adopted from "The Bullet Journal Method", ch 2 "Events"). This helps with three things:

1. reviewing (looking back on my month),
2. remembering ideas when they are relevant,
3. building a big-picture view while reading.
Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on How refined is your art of note-taking? · 2021-05-20T22:21:36.762Z · LW · GW
1. Not very, still developing habit.
2. Mostly for work-related minutae, but trying to expand that.
3. Yes. I keep a stack of clipped together A8 sheets of paper on me at all times (essentially as a "RAM" extension), write a (modified) Bullet Journal, and keep an Obsidian vault with more topic-oriented permanent notes (this is also where book summaries go). I also use Zotero for digital collection management.
4. Sort of. I've tried a few different ideas (Zettelkasten, Bullet Journal, Getting Things Done, Cornell notes, plus some hacked-together monstruosities) for several months at a time. So far nothing stuck for more than a year.
5. I find it that the problem with memory tends to be retrieving memories, rather than storing them. I.e.: things are in my head, I just... forget that is the case. The exception is permanent topic notes. I write these longform for six-months-in-the-future me.
Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on How concerned are you about LW reputation management? · 2021-05-19T00:06:21.473Z · LW · GW

Some time ago I noticed this trend among people I respect on Twitter (motivating examples). It seems to me that there is a consensus view that openness has a damaging effect on discourse.

This view does not seem to stem from the problem addressed by "Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism" and "Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs" -the gradual decline of a community due to environmental exposure- but rather from the problem that you percieve: the reputational hazard of public fora.

My current stance on public discourse is that it serves as a discovery mechanism: writing and speaking in public serves to find people worth talking with in private.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Deliberately Vague Language is Bullshit · 2021-05-14T15:15:13.703Z · LW · GW

I have not yet read the book, but from a recommendation I infer that Leo Strauss' "Persecution and the Art of Writing" goes into considerable depth on the mechanics of using vagueness as a dogwhistling mechanism.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Sexual Dimorphism in Yudkowsky's Sequences, in Relation to My Gender Problems · 2021-05-03T20:28:52.570Z · LW · GW

And remember: on-site backups are not backups. Even if you are working on a git repo, it is surprisingly easy to screw up your commit history so badly you have to burn it all down and start over, and that is not by far the worst possible disaster.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Sexual Dimorphism in Yudkowsky's Sequences, in Relation to My Gender Problems · 2021-05-03T18:10:30.737Z · LW · GW

It is a direct response to a quotation from the article, so not really.

I guess I want to be "a normal [...] man wearing a female body like a suit of clothing."

Is that weird? Is that wrong?

Okay, yes, it's obviously weird and wrong, but should I care more about not being weird and wrong, than I do about my deepest most heartfelt desire that I've thought about every day for the last nineteen years?

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Sexual Dimorphism in Yudkowsky's Sequences, in Relation to My Gender Problems · 2021-05-03T17:33:41.074Z · LW · GW

I know this misses most of the point of the article, but I also believe it's worth pointing out: I don't think a male wanting a female body form is any weirder or wronger that a male wanting to be 2 inches taller, buff, and having 20/20 eyesight.

PS: I did try reducing "weird and wrong" to their components. Result of the excercise: I find the OP uncontroversially "statistically rare" or "heterodox", but neither "viscerally repulsive" nor "morally reprehensible". I can see the value of explicitly reducing complex concepts in the general case, but I'm not sure it was worthwhile for this instance.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Wanting to Succeed on Every Metric Presented · 2021-04-12T22:22:44.650Z · LW · GW

May I propose "appraisals" as a substitute for "opinions"? It is more precise, in that it implies judgement of worth

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on Don't Sell Your Soul · 2021-04-07T16:59:44.531Z · LW · GW

Who wouldn't watch an ad for \$10? Hell, at 10 cents per 1-minute ad, that is near minimum wage.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on What are some good resources on workflow or productivity for mathematicians? · 2021-03-20T23:52:33.172Z · LW · GW

Appreciated. To my rss it goes.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on What are some good resources on workflow or productivity for mathematicians? · 2021-03-20T16:58:11.563Z · LW · GW

Currently grappling with this problem (compsci undergrad). I'm pulling ideas from Allen's Getting Things Done, Carroll's Bullet Journal, and Ahrens' How to take smart notes

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on What are fun little puzzles / games / exercises to learn interesting concepts? · 2021-03-18T14:20:02.471Z · LW · GW

Hanabi

It is an excellent game to really get the concepts of priors and subjectively objective probabilities. Try a round and ask "what is the probability that the next card on the deck is a 5?", interesting discussion ensues.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on How to Fix Science · 2020-06-08T18:57:26.245Z · LW · GW

The website is currently down and parked by GoDaddy. Archive.org has several snapshots, but they are all 404s since 2012.

Comment by Pablo Repetto (pablo-repetto-1) on How to Fix Science · 2020-06-08T18:44:57.388Z · LW · GW

That link points to your Dual N-Back piece. I think you meant https://www.gwern.net/Replication#nhst-and-systematic-biases