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The problem is that these questions depend a lot on the details. I don't know much about the impact of DEI statements or how they are used. I mean, the Biden/Harris administration doesn't have a policy which is "anti-DEI scientists should be fired" or even "NSF grants should require DEI statements". The NSF just has the mission "to promote the progress of science, to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare, and to secure the national defense". That's really vague, and now the Biden/Harris administration has passed some vague executive orders. But even without executive orders, the NSF could just believe that promoting DEI efforts is important to achieve their mission more effectively. They may be mistaken, but I don't think I can have that much to say about it if I'm not well read about it. That's why I talk so much about process and why I dislike the use of executive orders as it's kind of a sidestep of the normal process (I think).
Basically my answer is (2), but it depends on the details and I just haven't seen that much of an impact of these DEI statements. I just think there are differences between the candidates that are a lot more important than their impact on DEI in academia.
Just one question, when he tried to steal the election using fake electors in 2020, do you think that was bad?
It would probably be more constructive if we focus on one issue at a time, so I suggest we finish this topic before discussing others.
Okay.
I see all of these decision of deciding what to fund and how to fund them as political. I mean, during the last century a lot of marine research was done through the military, and that shaped what kind of research was done, and which people could do it (probably not anti-war people). I see all of these things as changing government priorities and not restrictions on freedom of speech or conscience.
On the topic of DEI statements themselves, I don't really think it's that productive to require them on a large scale. Many universities and research agencies motivate them by saying that it's important for them to have a diverse base of researches to be more effective/have more perspectives or that it's the moral thing to do, after excluding them historically. And sure, that might make sense, but I think what that means depends a lot on the scientific field and where in America it's done. So such policies are probably better done on a more local level.
I also see that the way the Biden/Harris admin has influenced the NSF is through two executive orders (1, 2) which I don't think is that good. If NSF changed their priority or if laws are passed to change their mandate then that's one thing, but executive orders are pretty blunt. They also make it hard to say who to blame for things like DEI statements as the executive orders are pretty vague. As the NSF is still an independent agency, it feels like DEI statements are more something the NSF made up to promote DEI and which Biden/Harris is allowing, then something they made them do.
But if someone just dislikes DEI statements then it doesn't matter that much why exactly they were implemented, as the important part is that Trump would probably get rid of them.
So basically, I think it's kind of a bad policy, but not that big of a deal.
Sorry for writing two comments, but I'm really curious of some ground beliefs, because it feels a little silly to talk about specific policy proposals without mentioning the - in my mind - biggest reason not to vote for Trump: he tried to steal the last election.
More specifically, he said after the election that the election was rigged against him. He had a bunch of court cases which sought to prove that the election was rigged against him, and pretty much every case was proven false. Then when his vice president were to certify electors from the state, Trump wanted him to use fake electors, which were not sent from the states, to say that Trump won the election. If his plan would have worked, then Trump would have stolen the election. But Pence did not do that, because Pence didn't want to steal the election. He later said Trump "demanded that I choose between him and the constitution, [..] I chose the constitution". That's why the crowd was yelling "hang Mike Pence" during Jan 6.
Do you care about that?
Well the reason I didn't think of DEI statements and such is because that's not really something Trump talks about much, right? He mostly talks about immigration (cats and dogs!), Ukraine, inflation, etc. So I don't know much about it.
Also, I don't really see DEI statements as a restriction on "freedom of speech" or "freedom of conscience". If I understand correctly, it's that grants by NSF to institutions have to have a section explaining their DEI initiatives. And sure you can disagree if that should be a factor, and maybe you think it's stupid to have as a requirement, but just because they have different priorities/beliefs than you doesn't mean they're stifling freedom of speech.
Imagine if the government started caring a lot about AI and NSF required people to talk about their AI work/impact in every funding request. Would that be stupid? Yes, because a lot of important work isn't that relevant to AI. But this doesn't really impact freedom of speech, it just means they prioritize research differently than you would. The government thinks DEI should affect research grants. You don't. Someone will always feel left out when funding is allocated, and feel "forced" to act in some ways to receive funding. But I don't see that as a restriction on "freedom of speech".
When it comes to burning the flag, maybe it's a bad example. In my mind, burning the flag just means hating on America and I don't think that should be illegal. But some people see burning the flag like destroying something holy, so they treat that restriction differently than other restrictions. But it's still a more clear restriction than DEI statements. It's an actual law that restricts how you are allowed to express yourself in America.
But when it comes to infiltration of institutions, I find it worrying when Vance says:
Fire every single midlevel bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state, replace them with our people.
What does he mean with "our people"? Would it be a restriction on freedom of speech to fire every civil servant and replace them with "our people"? I think it would. Surely he doesn't mean people who are critical of Trump as "our people".
Also, I think removing the right to abortion from millions of people is a much clearer restriction of liberty than DEI statements or banning flag-burning.
I agree empirical observations are generally more reliable than theoretical argument.
- But higher tariffs does in general increase inflation right? And he didn't influence the Fed that much during his administration, but if he did then it would make the economy worse, right? And it wasn't higher during the Biden/Kamala administration because of price-controls, right?
- Yes, I agree that it was lower. But when voting you don't vote for outcomes, you vote for people who have policies which affect outcomes. When politicians tried to improve the border, Trump told them not to do it. He sabotaged legislation that you would like, to increase the chances that he would win. It feels like you're rewarding Trump for making the border situation worse. I think that is bad.
- If I look up the NSF on Wikipedia, then it says that it's an "independent agency". This means that it is not controlled by the president. It's ok to dislike that policy, but you shouldn't blame Biden for it, because he doesn't control the agency. If Trump was the president, he wouldn't control the agency either. But sure, he could cooperate with other branches of government to influence the NSF. He could also use other branches of government to make it illegal to burn flags. Is that good? Is that not a limit on freedom of speech?
To me it feels like you're bringing up small disagreements you have in some policies with the Biden/Kamala administration, but turning a blind eye to the huge problems with a Trump/Vance administration.
Technical feedback on the website:
- Scrolling changes the URL. This is bad because then the browser history gets filled with the website multiple times, and trying to return to the previous page is very cumbersome.
- If someone's image doesn't load, then it's blank and you can't see that there's someone there. There should be some default picture. You're not hosting the image, so it could be unable to load if the host moves or removes the image, or if the user uses some kind of tracking protection (e.g. Firefox blocks many Twitter images).
I can argue some:
- Economy Well that obviously depends on what you mean with "price controls". None of the candidates give that much details on their economic policies, but Harris has mostly focused on anti-price gouging legislation. Now maybe you disagree with this legislation, but you have to compare it to Trumps economic policies: he wants to increase tariffs drastically, which would increase inflation. He also wants the Fed to be less independent, which could cause them to prioritize short term politics, which would be bad for the long term economy.
- Immigration The president doesn't control immigration alone. Any changes to the immigration process in the US would need bipartisan support. Now luckily, there is bipartisan support for improving the immigration process. That's why there was a bipartisan bill drafted earlier this year to improve the immigration process in various ways. Passing the bill would be good for the US, but bad for Trump as it would make it harder to say that the democrats don't care about immigration. So he told the republicans to vote NO, and they killed the bill because of it. That shows that Trump cares more about winning the election, than improving the border.
- Individual liberties The examples you give are a little vague. I don't know any restrictions that the Biden administration has done to freedom of speech or freedom of conscience. I do know that some people consider the right to abortion a Individual liberty, which is now banned in multiple states because of Trump. Trump has also said he wants to put people in jail for expressing their freedom of speech through burning flags. That's a pretty severe restriction.
Yeah maybe. I tried to write what I think is true, but from the perspective of someone with different values. If I included things I didn't think were true then that feels like I'm mocking Trump supporters and I don't want to do that. For example: "The democrats are letting in immigrants who are eating cats and dogs, people's pets. Trump would stop this". Obviously it's a belief held by MAGAs, and if it was true then it's a good argument to vote for Trump. But I don't think it's true, and therefore it's a very bad argument.
Here's a steelman:
- Abortion If you believe abortion is immoral, then Trump's greatest accomplishment during his last term was to appoint conservative supreme court judges which gave the ability to ban abortion to the states. This lead to several states placing heavy restrictions on abortions. If Trump wins again, abortion might even be restricted nationally, as Trump has declined to say whether he'll veto such a bill.
- Immigration The US has seen an increase in illegal immigration during Biden's presidential term. There are many factors that influenced this, but if Trump was President then it would probably be lower. For example, he wants to use the military to deport people, something I don't believe a democratic candidate would do.
- Israel/Palestine A war is happening in the middle east, and though the US is supporting Israel, their support is partial, and they express support for Palestinians too. They are sanctioning settlers and being affected by democratic voters who don't support Israel. Trump would be more pro-Israel and would not cave in to pressure; he would even jail protesters who burn flags.
- Winning The democratic party cares about laws and democratic norms. Trump cares about winning. Sometimes you have to have a guy that tries to win, no matter what. If cartels are affecting the US, bomb Mexico. If there's a war in Europe, force a peace deal. If bad people win the election, use fake electors. If you break the law, become immune. Elect a leader who does whatever it takes to win, and then the US will win too.
Well, all of the questions are binary so they either happen or don't happen. They may not be sampled from some "objective" distribution, but you can still assign subjective probabilities to them. Just write how likely you think they are to happen.
The Discord link seems to have expired.
Swedish perspective: It's pretty funny seeing these biscuits praised as some kind of perfect recipe/secret treasure when it's one of the most common biscuits here. And when I say common I don't mean that they can be found in stores or cafés (though they sometimes can) but that it's something many people make at home. I think the reason that they aren't more common in stores is that they taste much better when they are warm; from the oven. The stores can't compete with that.
The recipe I'm used to is pretty similar to yours (from the famous Our Cookbook) but without the ginger or salt.
So instead of a disclaimer saying that a tweet is false, we'll now have a market saying that it probably will be declared false in the future. Then later the tweet will be declared 100% false and the market would close. But I don't see why you would trust the final result any more than the disclaimer. If you don't trust the social media companies then the prediction market just becomes "what people think social media companies will think" which doesn't solve the problem.
Edit: I missed that future users would vote to decide what the true outcome was but my point still stands. The prediction market would become "what people think people on social media will think". I know there has been work on solving this (Augur?) but I haven't read any of it.