Comment by RationalActor on The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine · 2022-08-09T20:24:26.630Z · LW · GW

Thank you for the interesting post, Holden!

The two key predictions that you make in your “Wild Century” blog series, as I understand it, are:

• an AI that will be able to do the process of scientific inquiry (much) better and faster than humans, leading to a productivity explosion, and super-fundamental societal change

• digital people/mind-uploading

…this century (plausibly).

These feel much bigger/wilder/more dramatic/more fundamental than the examples given here. This makes me a bit sceptical of how useful the evidence (entertainingly and fascinatingly) assembled in this post is.