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What features would you like to see in a personal forcasting / prediction tracking app? 2023-05-25T08:18:57.961Z
Announcing the Confido app: bringing forecasting to everyone 2023-05-25T08:18:13.307Z

Comments

Comment by regnarg on Introducing AI-Powered Audiobooks of Rational Fiction Classics · 2024-05-13T21:09:19.293Z · LW · GW

Is the recording schedule based on Patreon cash flow? I.e. if more people support, could we get episodes faster? Or is it also limited by your time? (not sure how much manual labour goes into this vs just paying for the service) Would it be possible to put money toward a specific project? This may be an interesting incentive for people who'd like to see more of their favourite story sooner:)

Comment by regnarg on Announcing the Confido app: bringing forecasting to everyone · 2023-05-25T14:45:17.984Z · LW · GW

The main highlight is the ability to run self-hosted on your own infrastructure (again, this was done to allow use in government setting where there are usually tight restrictions on who can handle data). This is always recommended when privacy and security is improtant for you (not just with our tools but with anything that processes sensitive data in general). Also, it is open source so anyone can check that we are not doing anything fishy.

As for workspaces hosted by us, everything is hosted in the EU with strict GDPR data protection laws. The user always controls their data, who it is shared with, etc. When you delete something, it is actually deleted. We use minimum intermediaries (currently just our hosting provider, otherwise we process everything ourselves and do not involve any other cloud-based services in data handling), do not share any data with third parties (like most cloud services do) or do anything else with it that is not directly required in order to provide the service to the user.

Comment by regnarg on Extreme Rationality: It's Not That Great · 2021-01-14T22:54:25.684Z · LW · GW

For me, the core of the rationality project is something like a determination to make your beliefs completely subservient to reality, at all costs, fighting your natural instincts for defending your beliefs, trying to win debates, etc. Not trusting your beliefs just because they are yours. Approaching the most controversial and divisive subjects with a curiosity mindset. Looking forward to changing your mind.

Most "normally rational" people can do this in technical and scientific matters, but in other domains, such as politics, philosophy, society, economics, religion and their personal lives (to some extent), such a stance is extremely uncommon, even among very "normally rational" and highly-educated people -- thus according to your taxonomy, it would fall under x-rationality, I guess (even though I'm not sure whether that's what you intended). In these areas, tribalism, confirmation bias, trying to win debates and talking past each other usually wins out.

All the other parts of x-rationality -- all the techniques and tools -- are just that, tools (of varying levels of usefulness, of course). I am not going to argue much for the value of the tools, mostly for the value of The Determination. When you have The Determination, you can seek out the tools you need.

The Determination is valuable in many ways.

People with The Determination make a better society, coordinate better, choose better policies because they actually listen to arguments from all sides and don't just fight with each other etc. And because high-level societal problems are messy and complicated, ordinary rationality is usually not enough. I know, this is not what you are aiming for, it is not a direct benefit to the practicing individual. But I think it is important and overlooked nonetheless.

Especially in light of the COVID pandemic, it is very visible how desperately we would need more Determined people. Even well-educated rational people such as doctors and biochemists sometimes spread dangerous falsehoods (and stuck with them) because they overlooked some simple fact (e.g. how an exponential growth really behaves). When confronted, they just rehearse their arguments, which make perfect sense themselves, except for the fact that they overlook a crucial consideration. When you have The Determination, you are always on the lookout for crucial considerations missed.

This is a tangible practical benefit (e.g. there would be much less dead) but it is a group benefit rather than an individual one.

As for truly individual benefits, I'm sure there are many, but they differ from person to person. For me, the most obvious one is that I can much better talk with people of widely differing opinions, I am much less confrontational and generally relate to others better. This has been hugely valuable to me.

It has also greatly helped me in matters of relationships and emotional regulation. I can for example handle my emotions in a similar way to my beliefs: not taking them at face value, treating them as a hypothesis. I can notice when I fall into harmful patterns, react poorly because of something completely unrelated, start forming an anxious-preoccupied / codependent attachment, etc. and correct myself, no matter how real it feels. This is the same mindset of never fully trusting yourself, just applied differently.

As for achieving mundane life goals such as getting jobs and money, I'd concede that x-rationality does not help that much. On the other hand, I think it can for example help you notice that you chose the wrong goals (e.g. you believe something will make you happy when in fact it won't; people are generally lousy at predicting what will make them happy). Again, the same stance helps. Treating everything, including what you want, as a hypothesis.

Comment by regnarg on Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Summary · 2020-03-29T08:50:01.027Z · LW · GW

Good point. You can try measuring it with and ohmmeter from the side, there should be ~ no measurable resistance.

Comment by regnarg on Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Summary · 2020-03-29T07:16:58.590Z · LW · GW

Perhaps you could also wind thin-ish non-stranded copper wire around a door handle, as if on a spool. This might easier to obtain for some people (or they already have it at home) and won't have the sharp edged that can cut your hand. If it does not want to stay in place, perhaps also put double-sided adhesive tape under it? Haven't had the opportunity to try this yet, just speculating