Comment by Rellag on My Strange Beliefs · 2008-01-01T23:53:16.000Z · LW · GW

Clarification, please, from the audience

Its 1823. I own a printing press. I publish a monthly gazette entitled "Man will fly like birds in the future"

Substantively all the math required to design airfoils was completed by 1822. That this statement is true will not be generally evident for another 75 years.

Should my contemporaries classify me as irrational, delusional, or just plain wrong? What evidence would or should you provide to back such assertions?

How should the following compound statements (made, of course, by YHS in 1823) be evaluated?

• "Man will fly in the future, but the necessary math is incomplete"
• "Man will fly in the future, and the necessary math is complete"
• "Man will fly in the future, and I'm working out the math"

Don't we need to be very careful when discussing beliefs about contingencies?