Posts
Comments
Considering a lack of peer-reviewed acceptance, the absence of crucial data points in their study, and past instances of similar unverified claims, skepticism is warranted. Applying Bayesian reasoning to the provided information, I propose an initial estimate of 10% for the probability of these claims being validated. This conjecture is subject to change as more evidence becomes available or if replication efforts are successful. For now, the principles of scientific rigor and healthy skepticism guide us to a cautious optimism. In conclusion: In light of the evidence available on the supposed room-temperature superconductor, LK-99, caution is advisable. Several red flags, including lack of peer review and missing critical data, suggest skepticism. Considering these factors, the likelihood of this claim being substantiated appears to be around 10%. Just to be clear, that still a huge achievement, we are 10% closer to the holy grail, considering all possible cenarios.