Posts
Comments
You meet an old wizened man, sitting by a fire. As you sit and talk with him, he shares his regrets - if only he were young again, the things he might do differently.
He challenges you to seek out and read a Lesswrong article called "bug hunt", which suggests writing a list of potential improvements to your life. You evidence you have done this by giving him the 25th word of that article. Well done, he rewards you with some experience points.
Next he gives you a bound leather tome, your own bug book. He teaches you two level one spells: "hope" which records a bug in the tome, and "surpass" which marks a bug as completed. Each time the latter is cast a short explanation must be given of what was done in the real world to beat that bug.
Come back, the man suggests, when you are a level higher. Then he will teach you "ambition", a spell to help overcome some bugs by setting a motivating goal. But you'll need more experience points before you're ready for that.
Or perhaps you find some bugs difficult because of internal fear. East of here, he claims, is a fearless warrior woman. She is difficult to find, but can teach you a spell called "approach". That spell allows even the most fearsome bugs to be attacked, by approaching them incrementally.
You leave the meeting eager to employ these new spells you have learned, empowered to improve your life step-by-step.
Does that example answer your question?
Could futarchy be used to run a business? Setting up a business is much easier than taking over the government of a country!
Bets could be proposed like: "If policy X is adopted then the share dividend on such and such a date will be higher than if it is not adopted". Bets with the highest support could then be adopted and over time, the share dividend would steadily increase.
Thank you for your positive comments, and particularly those interested in contributing to the code.
I've created a git repository here: https://github.com/rlp10/sitm. I've also written some initial documents outlining my ideas for how the code would be written: a README document, a TODO list, a list of ideas for plugins and a PLAN document giving my overall technical roadmap. All these are committed into the repository for you to read and comment upon.
I would be very grateful for people's comments on github regarding my plans for coding. I would like this to be a community effort. I've posted some questions already under "Issues".
I will post back here with our progress for those who wish to try using the program. All technical discussion will take place on github, rather than on lesswrong.com.
Let's work together to make this project a success and get ourselves more motivated and productive!
I've just spoken with the venue and unusually they're not opening until 12 noon!
There's another pub that's definitely open called The Belle Vue; It's just around the corner. The address is The Belle Vue, 46 St. Phillips Road, Norwich, NR2 3BL. The directions from The Black Horse are: walk up Heighman Road, take the first left onto Stafford Street and then it's on the corner of the fourth right turn which is called St Phillips Road.
I'll plan to stay at The Black Horse until 11:15am in case someone else shows up, and then walk up to The Belle Vue.
Alexey, you related this experience to me when I visited Cambridge a couple of weeks back. I've taken your advice and setup a meetup in Norwich this weekend. I only posted a week earlier on the website though, so perhaps next time I should post more in advance.
So, that's another benefit of the Budepest meetup, it encouraged at least one other meetup in another city.
As it happens, I have a pretty good-sized paperclip right here. So yeah, I'll pop that on the table if I arrive first.
I guess we're the only two LWers in Norwich (so far!).
I'm interested.
"Subreddits" were discussed here and you can see there some of the pros and cons.
Personally, I would support subreddits. I've been involved in one or two spinoff mailing lists, and it seems a shame that the content of those posts is not available to all on the LW site, if they want to read through them.
I believe that this is sometimes referred to as the 'ABC model' (antecedent, behaviour, consequence) and is the basis of cognitive behavioural therapy.
The book, Self-Directed Behaviour, is based on this model. I enjoyed it but, as I'm not academic in that area, can't really comment on the research behind it.
Yes, I have had the same experience, although it always seems short-lived.
Perhaps it says more about the technique of consuming motivational self-help books, more than the techniques described inside.
Is there any software you would recommend for this?
My own research points to AutoScreenShot.
Thank you for your thoughts.
Not seeing any suggestions from you - did you spend 5 minutes thinking about it before asking here?
Yes, I've spent some time thinking and researching this question, including looking at this research paper and this survey.
Because I didn't want ideas similar to my own, I didn't initially list my own ideas for fear of priming the responses.
I recognise with hindsight that my post gives the impression that I was unwilling to help myself - I could have been clearer.
Finally, given all the discussion on anti-akrasia and procrastination, I thought that others may have actual experience to share.
I instintively agree, but wonder what evidence exists (beyond anecdotal) for asserting successful systems which are complex only evolve from simple systems.
A5. Considering your recorded results so far (if any), have you learned a subskill which can address the relevant factor?
If NO, goto B1 (learning a new subskill)
If YES, goto C1 (implement an existing subskill)
My intention was that the algorithm would lead to your learning as many subskills as were necessary until the procrastination was beat, but no more.
So, for boot-strapping purposes (i.e. learning as you go), perhaps the algorithm would look like this?
Diagnosis
- A1. Read about the four "factors" of procrastination (expectancy, value, impulsiveness and delay)
- A2. Notice that you're procrastinating
- A3. Consider which factor is most relevant
- A4. Are you confident you have identified the most relevant factor?
- If YES, go to A5
- If NO, go to A1
- A5. Considering your recorded results so far (if any), have you learned a subskill which can address the relevant factor?
- If NO, goto B1
- If YES, goto C1
Learning Subskills
- B1. Read about the subskills relevant to the problem factor
- B2. Choose the subskill that appears easiest for you to learn
- B3. Make a plan to learn, implement and practice that subskill
- Goto C1
Implementing Subskills
- C1. Implement the relevant subskill
- C2. Record the results of implementing the subskill
- Goto A2 when relevant
What do you think?
I've been working on anti-akrasia software. Currently it allows a person to log their daily activities, and assess how 'productive' they have been each day.
What I envision is a program with a modular facility: people can suggest and code modules providing anti-akrasia techniques.
A user would configure the program: my goals are X and Y and the anti-akrasia techniques I am using are A, B and C. Then the user would operate the program for a few days logging their daily activities, including how much closer towards their goals this takes them.
A user could then analyse the success of different techniques, with the software doing the heavy-lifting (i.e. applying bayes to suggest how much the user should believe that a certain technique is effective in helping them achieve their goals). Based on this information, the user would reconfigure the software, varying their goals or changing which techniques they are using.
If the user was willing, anonymous data could be collected to provide wider information on what techniques work and for what kinds of goals.
Any people capable of coding would be able to submit (a) modules for anti-akrasia techniques and (b) modules for analysing the data.
Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated!
It strikes me that this discussion of the benefits of religiosity, separate from its truth, is reminiscent of the placebo effect.
I used to be a professional tarot reader and astrologer
May I ask, at that time did you thoroughly believe that you were actually able to predict the future?
Also, with the benefit of hindsight, do you consider yourself to have used the dark arts?
Hi, I'm Richard. I'm a lawyer, practising in Norwich, England. I've been 'lurking' on lesswrong, and working my way through the sequences, for some time.
I have an interest in technology, and particularly open source projects. For example, I'm writing this right now in Emacs.
I hope I will be able to contribute positively to this community, which has certainly already helped me a great deal.