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Moderate danger now: One kind of a rather unknown phenomenon, for e.g., traveling black holes in space that could make a bang like the impact of a big asteroid. Great danger as a slowly accelerating process: Changes of the Moderate danger now: One kind of a rather unknown phenomenon, for e.g., traveling black holes in space that could make a bang like the impact of a big asteroid. Great danger as a slowly accelerating process: Changes of the ecosystem which make the atmosphere lacking a secure amount of oxygen after 10000 years.
Greatest danger as a quickly accelerating development: Artificial Intelligence in war. The World-model http://www.singinst.org/ourresearch/publications/GISAI/mind/worldmodel.html of General Intelligence and Seed AI is the reason why I'm posting this. I'd like to ask if Modelearth - http://www.modelearth.org/ - could be something of the World-model? Anyway, I'm a fan of what Hearthstone, the creator of Modelearth, has published. This isn't real science, so it's rather off-topic for a conference like Global Catastrophic Risks - http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/ -. Anyway, before I make any estimates in terms of computer-generated models, I'd like to ask: Could this become a risk in approximately ten years, due to progress in computer technologies?
Basically, three very different scenarios for a model can be outlined: 1st "best-case", 2nd "mean-case", and 3rd "worst-case". Someone who watches http://www.modelearth.org/artics.html finds the elementary concept of a scenario on which Modelearth is based upon. Thus, Modelearth is definitely the Best-Case Scenario in the form of web-pages.
Air travel as usual, including occurrences which support airplanes with jet-engines, is based on the Mean-Case Scenario. But since the engines of normal airplanes are run with non-renewable energy resources, the tendency goes towards the Worst-Case Scenario. The current way of long cruising in Sondola Airship http://shintoist.com doesn't support Modelearth in reality, but its tendency goes towards the opposite direction of air travel as usual. It's only the alternative in progress towards a sustainable ecology.
Actually, there are many countries with an ever growing population. Simply put: The more people, the more food, the more transportation. Not anyone is a farmer, so we must either travel to the food or the food must be transported to us. Industrialized countries cannot produce technologies to circumvent the transportation of goods over long distances without great changes in society. The economic change may be a reduced value of money. Thus, when consumers can't buy food, they die as a result of malnutrition. Is this economic solution against overpopulation good for Modelearth? Well, most people don't think so!
Overpopulation is the keyword which rational thinkers must defend against the agenda of some influential political leaders. Certain law makers restrict various kinds of marriage and keep control over the way in which humans mate and multiply. Thus, it's bad for that meme-shaping business to address overpopulation as the very cause of many dangers, with World War Three as a real existential risk. Also see "Extinction Risk: Demonstration Necessary?" - http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/?p=827 -. No thanks, an interactive model can be scary enough!
Cross-posted: June 10th, 2008 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=133#comments