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I identified that there were perhaps four times where the technology was such that an industrial revolution was possible, but in the first three it didn't happen, perhaps because of the things you cite.
We are NOT in agreement, because I claim that those other three times were NOT possible. They were false dawns that only appear plausible because people think that technological progress, given enough time, can overcome any systemic political barriers.
If you have a biology and/or technology-centered view of civilizational progress, what I say seems nonsensical. Nature finds a way and all and you have so many chances over millions of years. I am telling you that those chances NEVER existed and could never led to industrialization on their own terms.
There were maybe 4 shots at such a breakthrough: the height of the western Roman empire; China after their 4 great inventions, circa 1100 CE; the Islamic golden age; and the Renaissance.
I strongly disagree. Let's say A Connecticut Yankee In King Arthur's Court visits those eras and attains supreme political power and has knowledge of all the wonders of the late 19th century and how to recreate them sequentially from stone tools.
His attempt to create an Industrial Revolution in all four cases would explode in his face. The explosion comes in the form of a sword jammed in his eye from an angry nobleman who, while appreciating the revolvers and electric furnaces, has a few issues with the emperor's plan to use taxes to create new middle-class competitors capable of furthering the sciences. Not unlike what happened in the book, really.
And that's ultimately the problem I have with the 'the Industrial Revolution was a direct extension and synthesis of pre-scientific technologies into something more organized'. Because it ignores how if you don't have the political prerequisites for an Industrial Revolution, whatever they are, it's not happening. The Great Empire doesn't give a damn about human evolution or the 500 million year time limit for the sun or even making sure its people can secure their own existence. It, as with all other autocracies without exception, cares about perpetuating itself and views political conditions such as 'a legal system that protects entrepreneurialism' or 'a middle class with enough economic power to drive society' as an existential threat.
Well, fair enough, how do we extract the Great Empire's grip on Iron Age technological progress from humanity? In the real world, it happened quite by accident, over a period of centuries. And what's more, the accident could only happen in the first place because of Earth's unique geographic and evolutionary history.
So extracting the grip of Iron Age Empires off of its species' throat is probably impossible without an extremely lucky black swan that checks the autocracy's power in such a way that they don't cannibalize and re-enslave the emerging middle class necessary for an Industrial Revolution.
I disagree heavily with a technological perspective to the Industrial Revolution. For a few reasons:
- It ignores how the Industrial Revolution wasn't just late to and concurrent with the Scientific Revolution -- it specifically fueled its existence. Without the surpluses enabled by the Industrial Revolution, you couldn't support a large enough middle class to draw future waves of engineers and scientists from. Military officers and noblemen are overrepresented in pre-industrial sciences for a reason. The Scientific Revolution would straight up not have happened without a huge middle class. What allowed the creation of the Middle Class?
So, there's a problem with your feedback loop right there. It has the relationship backwards in my opinion. - The technological prerequisites for an Industrial Revolution have been in place for centuries. Why didn't it happen? You say it was a feedback loop, how could the feedback loop sustain itself to begin with? Or even get started? What was the nature of this trigger, and how could it be replicated?
Looking at human history:
The transition from Stone Age to Iron Age is fairly straightforward. It's been independently achieved all across the world in very different conditions, there's no reason to think it wouldn't be the same for xenos.
The transition from Industrial Age to our modern age is the same. It hasn't happened as often, but given the wide variety of governments and economies that got there from very different starting conditions, it's not much of an obstacle. And I assume that it would be the same for aliens.
The transition from Iron Age to Industrial Age is the pisser. Despite the technological and population prerequisites being there for centuries, it only happened in a very specific political condition. That is, an unprecedented economic surplus for the conqueror that required them to hastily and more importantly passively grow the middle class in order to capture and shoo away other conquerors. The unprecedented economic surplus was only possible because of a huge difference in technological levels difficult to achieve without industrialization and of course diseases.
I can say one thing for sure: the transition was NOT caused by a technological, biological, or cosmological trigger. It was purely political, and what's more, the political situation required a very specific geographical history in order to achieve.