Comment by Serious_Shenanigans on Your Strength as a Rationalist · 2013-07-11T10:29:22.057Z · LW · GW

Eliezer's model:

The Medical Establishment is always right.

Information given:

• Person is feeling chest pain.
• Paramedics say hospitalization is unnecessary.

Possible scenarios mentioned in the story:

1. Person is feeling chest pain and is having a heart attack.
2. Person is feeling chest pain but does not need to be hospitalized.
3. Person is lying.

Between the model and the information given, only Scenario 1 can be ruled false; Scenarios 2 and 3 are both possible. If Eliezer is going to beat himself up for not knowing better, it should be because Scenario 3 did not occur to him -- not that Scenario 3 is the logical reality.

Comment by Serious_Shenanigans on Think Like Reality · 2013-07-10T08:38:38.476Z · LW · GW

“That’s weird” is a colloquialism for “I notice that I am confused.” Saying so is an important intermediate step towards understanding... or so I’ve heard. Once you understand, then weirdness is a non-issue -- you are no longer confused.