LINK: Superrationality and DAOs 2015-01-24T09:47:22.710Z
Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014 2014-05-19T04:49:59.430Z


Comment by somnicule on Rationality Quotes Thread February 2015 · 2015-02-02T02:47:38.982Z · LW · GW

Wouldn't this be more ore appropriate for an open thread than the quotes thread?

Comment by somnicule on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, January 2015, chapter 103 · 2015-01-30T02:49:02.515Z · LW · GW

I question the wisdom of reading books that someone was potentially killed for reading without better opsec than Malfoy was demonstrating.

Comment by somnicule on LINK: Superrationality and DAOs · 2015-01-24T12:21:03.354Z · LW · GW

I don't think so. They're running on the blockchain, which slows them down. The primary decision-making mechanisms for them are going to basically be the same as can be used for existing organizations, like democracy, prediction markets, etc. Unless you think your bank or government is going to become a seed AI, there's not that much more to DAOs.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, Jan. 19 - Jan. 25, 2015 · 2015-01-21T01:43:54.484Z · LW · GW

Keep forgetting to say thanks for the advice. Haven't had the chance to give it a shot yet, but once I get some headphones I will.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, Jan. 19 - Jan. 25, 2015 · 2015-01-20T09:20:48.959Z · LW · GW

You could post this as a top level discussion post here, if you want to make it more available and reduce trivial inconveniences to those without access to facebook.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, Jan. 19 - Jan. 25, 2015 · 2015-01-20T08:58:41.931Z · LW · GW

Didn't get a response in the last thread, so I'm asking again, a bit more generally.

I've recently been diagnosed with ADHD-PI. I'm wondering how to best use that information to my advantage, and am looking for resources that might help manage this. Does anyone have anything to recommend?

In the short-term I'm trying to lower barriers for things like actually eating by preparing snacks in snaplock bags, printing out and laminating checklists to remind me of basic tasks, and finding more ways to get instant feedback on progress in as many areas as I can (for coding, this means test-driven development).

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, Jan. 19 - Jan. 25, 2015 · 2015-01-19T05:36:17.994Z · LW · GW

I'm using workflowy as well, and it's the only to-do list software I've ever actually used for more than a few days.

One feature that I've wanted for a while is dependencies. Let's say you need to print out a form, but you need to purchase printer ink first. Being able to hide "print out form for xyz" until "buy printer ink" is completed would be great.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, Jan. 12 - Jan. 18, 2015 · 2015-01-12T14:35:08.496Z · LW · GW

I've recently been diagnosed with ADHD (predominantly inattentive). Does anyone here share this, and if so, what resources or books on the topic would you recommend?

Comment by somnicule on IQ Scores Fail to Predict Academic Performance in Children With Autism · 2015-01-11T03:40:15.378Z · LW · GW

My Bayes' is not very strong, so forgive me. This is about as naive as it gets.

Prior for adult ADHD is about 4%.

For working memory:

2SD difference given ADHD is 35%, and for the rest of the population it's 2.4%. I'll use LWM to represent a significantly lower working memory.

This suggests an overall population of 3.7% having a 2SD difference, since 4% x 35% + 96% x 2.4% = 3.7%

So P(ADHD | LWM) = 35% x 4% / 3.7% = 37.8%

For processing speed:

2SD difference given ADHD is 44.9%, and for the rest of the population it's 8.7%. I'll use LPS to represent a significantly lower processing speed

This suggests and overall population of 10.1% having a 2SD difference, since 44.9% x 4% + 8.7% x 96% = 10.1%

so P(ADHD | LPS) = 44.9% x 4% / 10.1% = 17.8%

Each of those increase the odds of ADHD significantly above the population baseline, and if you're experiencing ADHD symptoms in conjunction with results like that, it's probably worth seeing a psychiatrist.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, Dec. 22 - Dec. 28, 2014 · 2014-12-22T20:08:06.445Z · LW · GW

Learn Python the Hard Way is a pretty solid resource, though I used it before Codecademy came out. Both are excellent practice-based resources for starting programming.

After that, just get python books and work through them. Tools like Flask and Django if you want to do web development, other stuff if you want to do other stuff. If you don't know if you

Stackoverflow is usually where google will take you when you look for answers to your questions, so you might as well bookmark it.

And if you don't have something in mind you want to make, but you want to keep practising, try doing some ProjectEuler problems.

Comment by somnicule on Rationality Quotes December 2014 · 2014-12-08T23:25:29.212Z · LW · GW

Isn't that the point of the quote?

Comment by somnicule on xkcd on the AI box experiment · 2014-11-26T08:13:00.182Z · LW · GW

Typical low-moderation problems. Repeated discussions of contentious but played-out issues like religion, IQ, status of various fields, etc. The basilisk is an infohazard in that sense at this point, IMO. It's fun to argue about, to the point of displacing other worthwhile discussion.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, Nov. 24 - Nov. 30, 2014 · 2014-11-24T11:12:06.760Z · LW · GW

Internal Family Systems is the analogous therapy technique, I think.

Comment by somnicule on Rationality Quotes October 2014 · 2014-10-31T22:06:42.592Z · LW · GW

I don't exactly see how it clashes with heroic responsibility?

"When you do a fault analysis, there's no point in assigning fault to a part of the system you can't change afterward, it's like stepping off a cliff and blaming gravity."

Comment by somnicule on Stupid Questions (10/27/2014) · 2014-10-29T07:47:59.102Z · LW · GW

The general incentives for this one seem better than average, (they generally take a cut of your first year's income rather than an upfront fee, high average income aster etc.) but I get a different, fixed payment contract since I'm from NZ. It's tempting, but higher risk than if I were from the US, especially since without a completed bachelors it'd be much harder to get a visa, and work here or in Australia won't pay nearly as well.

I'm really losing motivation at university and have my own mental health issues, so the prospect of something like that has been somewhat comforting as an escape route.

This has turned into "somnicule's personal problems" rather than the actual point of the thread, so I'll leave it there.

Comment by somnicule on Stupid Questions (10/27/2014) · 2014-10-28T10:09:11.497Z · LW · GW

I probably need to do some exposure therapy with phone calls, but it's definitely worthwhile doing that.

Comment by somnicule on Stupid Questions (10/27/2014) · 2014-10-28T10:08:53.972Z · LW · GW

Thanks, this is helpful. I've been hesitant about contacting family and friends for this, but on reflection there's no real reason for that.

Comment by somnicule on Stupid Questions (10/27/2014) · 2014-10-28T09:19:12.685Z · LW · GW

I have been accepted to App Academy and have been considering it as a faster option to getting high-paying work, but as a younger, international candidate I'd have to pay for flights as well as a US$5000 deposit. It's something I'd even be willing to borrow money for, given my waning motivation for university, but without an income or much current earning potential I don't know if I could get a loan for it. And I couldn't earn enough to go to the round I've been accepted to in time.

Comment by somnicule on Stupid Questions (10/27/2014) · 2014-10-28T09:06:53.897Z · LW · GW

Rowing for one season, competed in a mathematical modeling competition and didn't win but got a special mention from the judges, traveled to Ecuador for a month as a volunteer project, did some maths and physics tutoring.

Personal projects are pretty limited, but I've got a Django play money prediction market site that I could get running again in a weekend.

Beyond that, there's nothing that leaps to mind.

Comment by somnicule on Stupid Questions (10/27/2014) · 2014-10-28T05:40:14.112Z · LW · GW

How do you actually get a first job? I haven't completed my degree, am struggling to live on my government provided student allowance, and don't have any experience to put on my CV.

Comment by somnicule on Blackmail, continued: communal blackmail, uncoordinated responses · 2014-10-23T04:26:25.584Z · LW · GW

Only works if UDT agents make a significant proportion of agents in the setting. 10 UDT agents plus 1000 CDT agents, say, and the UDT agents are still vulnerable.

Comment by somnicule on Applications of logical uncertainty · 2014-10-19T06:13:34.798Z · LW · GW

I think most formulations of logical uncertainty give axioms and proven propositions probability 1, or 1-minus-epsilon.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, September 22-28, 2014 · 2014-09-22T10:35:00.417Z · LW · GW

modelling subjective value judgements as a function.

Like a utility function?

Comment by somnicule on What are your contrarian views? · 2014-09-17T11:42:33.425Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure what you mean by provably-secure, care to elaborate?

It sounds like it might possibly be required and is certainly not sufficient.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, 11-17 August 2014 · 2014-08-13T23:10:00.061Z · LW · GW

Look up Bayesian Truth Serum, not exactly what you're talking about but a generalized way to elicit subjective data. Not certain on its viability for individual rankings, though.

Comment by somnicule on Change Contexts to Improve Arguments · 2014-07-10T00:10:46.484Z · LW · GW

I think there are two opposing effects that might happen if you try something like this.

  1. People get less defensive about the identity politics of the debate, which opens both sides to actually engaging with the other side, not automatically rejecting the other side, treating arguments less like soldiers, etc.

  2. People are more likely to let statements they disagree with slide, and the depth and vigor of the discussion is reduced, by focusing on agreements and amicability, rather than disagreements.

A lot of other factors are at play here, but depending on what your biggest problems are in debate, and how much this sort of change will affect them, it might still be a good idea. If the debate is already an actual debate and argument, rather than political attacks and rhetoric, then changing the context to something like this would probably be counterproductive. If the debate is political attacks and rhetoric, on the other hand, a little bit of humanity and amicability is probably not a bad idea.

Comment by somnicule on Useful Standardized Tests? · 2014-07-10T00:00:44.716Z · LW · GW

What about practical knowledge and skills you might want to practice from those fields? Anki is an excellent substitute for the "short answer" side of standardized testing, but there's more to it than that if you want to apply it, and it's often difficult to find systematic ways to practice such things.

Can you set multiple questions to the same card in Anki? Like, if I wanted to practice something like factoring quadratic equations, would I be able to copy a whole bunch of problems of that type to Anki, and not have each one as an independent card to be memorized?

Comment by somnicule on Useful Standardized Tests? · 2014-07-09T23:57:58.594Z · LW · GW

For high school level knowledge, finding Cambridge International Exams past papers is a fairly good option. The exams are done twice a year, and go back to about 2003 IIRC.

Comment by somnicule on Will Darkcoin Have Thiel's Last Mover Advantage · 2014-07-02T23:19:46.798Z · LW · GW

Yeah, lately I've been trying to implement TruthCoin's SVD voting algorithm in Ethereum. Had a few hiccups so I'm putting it on the back burner for now.

But, unless I did something to the code I've forgotten, the judge can be an arbitrary contract here. A panel of judges, a single judge, a simple proof-of-stake voting system, or a TruthCoin-like system, etc.

Comment by somnicule on Will Darkcoin Have Thiel's Last Mover Advantage · 2014-07-02T04:36:43.142Z · LW · GW

Here, but it's not in working order right at the moment.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, 30 June 2014- 6 July 2014 · 2014-07-02T03:27:02.521Z · LW · GW

Similar results in a similar test. High akrasia, potentially confounded by depression and anxiety.

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, 30 June 2014- 6 July 2014 · 2014-07-02T03:26:09.466Z · LW · GW

If video games have a significant effect

Comment by somnicule on Open thread, 30 June 2014- 6 July 2014 · 2014-06-30T16:49:49.236Z · LW · GW

I had similar results from the WISC as a child, low processing speed relative to everything else. It's been something I've been meaning to ask about for a while as well, particularly since one educational professional predicted my test scores (roughly, of course) from certain problematic behavioural patterns, which was enough evidence that there's something meaningful there to get my attention.

My memory of the tests isn't entirely clear, but one task was something like transcribing unfamiliar symbols according to a substitution key in a particular time span. If that's similar to Daniel's experience, then any advice that cognitive science types can come up with here could be useful to both of us.


I think this study details the task I remember.

Comment by somnicule on Open Thread, May 26 - June 1, 2014 · 2014-05-28T16:01:09.662Z · LW · GW

Is the desire to impose one's morality on alien intelligences surprising relative to the "Eliminate the alien species" option, or "Conduct trade with the alien species", or "Avoid the alien species as much as possible"?

Comment by somnicule on Will Darkcoin Have Thiel's Last Mover Advantage · 2014-05-24T05:09:33.998Z · LW · GW

The cryptocurrency I'm most excited about is ethereum, and though it is going to have a premine, development is being done in a very open fashion. It allows users to develop smart contracts that execute whenever they contract's address receives a transaction. I've already written a binary LMSR prediction market contract which could run on ethereum.

Comment by somnicule on Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014 · 2014-05-19T17:32:07.291Z · LW · GW

The specific examples may not be used, but would clarify what sort of thing you're talking about.

Comment by somnicule on What Would You Do Without Morality? · 2014-04-25T13:19:14.699Z · LW · GW

so I would remain in the default state, which is doing nothing (beyond relieving instinctual needs).

That doesn't answer anything, really. All you've done is wrapped the same thing in some extra words. That doesn't seem to be anything resembling a "default state" to me, for instance, since humans tend to do a lot more than that even when they're not thinking about morality.

Comment by somnicule on What Would You Do Without Morality? · 2014-04-24T10:39:37.549Z · LW · GW

Basically I'm confused as to what process you went through to decide that sitting around doing precisely nothing is what you'd do. There's nothing that comes to mind to weight it over other options, and you seem pretty determined to stick to it.

Comment by somnicule on What Would You Do Without Morality? · 2014-04-23T16:10:19.489Z · LW · GW

Wouldn't it be easier to just go with those impulses?

Comment by somnicule on What Would You Do Without Morality? · 2014-04-20T20:51:03.863Z · LW · GW

So you don't have any impulse to relieve your own boredom, or to spend time with other people, or to seek out better-tasting food?

Comment by somnicule on Rationality Quotes April 2014 · 2014-04-19T04:57:08.694Z · LW · GW

Hmm. It's an interesting point.

I'm not entirely clear on the purpose of the rule. It makes sense to not just increase the redundancy of anything people have said in other threads that have already got a lot of attention, but I'm sure there's plenty of interesting stuff buried deep in comment threads that haven't got much light and might be worth sharing. Conversely, there will be some quotes here from outside LW/OB that a high proportion of readers have seen already.

So it's definitely something that made sense when the LW/OB community was smaller and there wasn't much good stuff that people weren't seeing anyway, but perhaps it's time to relax the rule a little bit, replace it with the substance.

Comment by somnicule on What Would You Do Without Morality? · 2014-04-19T00:34:28.168Z · LW · GW

Not sure I understand this properly. Why not do something?

Comment by somnicule on Open Thread April 16 - April 22, 2014 · 2014-04-18T10:13:59.341Z · LW · GW

For a minimal product, perhaps just start with the dependencies and priorities side of things? That seems to be the core of such a product, and the rest is dressing it up for usability.

Comment by somnicule on Meetup : Christchurch, NZ Inaugural Meetup · 2014-04-12T09:21:03.666Z · LW · GW

Tell me how it goes! I'm up in Auckland, haven't had much success getting a meetup group started here yet but I'll be trying again soon.

Comment by somnicule on Rationality Quotes April 2014 · 2014-04-09T11:13:15.263Z · LW · GW

“Even if it's not your fault, it's your responsibility.”