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Comment by Spenced on Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense · 2020-04-12T21:24:00.232Z · LW · GW

“ Deaths lag positive tests by weeks.”

False. Deaths lag new infections by 3-4 weeks.

Positive tests are an extremely misleading stat and definitely do NOT represent actual infection rates except in the few places where testing is widespread (ie a few small countries that have highly prioritized testing like Iceland, Estonia, and Bahrain).