Comment by Stiperstones on Are "superforecasters" a real phenomenon? · 2020-05-30T11:47:56.039Z · LW · GW

Pre-selected so-called superforecasters were one of the groups asked to anticipate the outcome of UK's referendum on membership of the European Union and they gave a 23% chance of a vote against membership succeeding - the lowest % and worst performance of all groups asked to predict the result. For a forecasting system to be reliable, it has to be assessed as to its skill over a period of continuous forecasting that will tell you what % of forecasts are correct. To.be useful, this figure should be about 70% or more. The only forecasting system that exceeds this level of skill is the weather forecasting system. Superforecasting does not exist.