Comment by stubydoo on Friedman's "Prediction vs. Explanation" · 2008-09-30T02:26:00.000Z · LW · GW

The first theorist had multiple theories to choose from that would have been consistent with the first 10 data points - some of them better than others. Later evidence indicates that he chose well, that he apparently has some kind of skill in choosing good theories. No such evidence is available regarding the skill of the second theorist.