Comment by Sunlet on Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war · 2022-10-09T06:47:08.541Z · LW · GW

I think there is one scenario you have left out, where the shooting war sort of stagnates, but is still fairly intense, and Russia bleeds itself out economically and socially maintaining the war. So, neither escalation nor de-escalation. I don't consider it to be a deescalation (Ie. "Libya"), because it's a form of loss for Russia, but it's slow enough that it doesn't necessarily register immediately as a "Vietnam" and there's time for internal unrest. At some point they will implode internally (coup/revolution/whatever), or they will escalate, or both. No idea of probabilities.

The global elites and media either think that nuclear war is impossible, or they are strongly influenced by the current environmentalist zeitgeist that considers humans to be overpopulated parasites on Mother Earth. I think this makes nuclear war much more likely, as they are disconnected enough from reality that they think bad things won't happen, or they are deluded that the bads things are good in some way.