Comment by tricstmr on The lessons of a world without Hitler · 2012-01-16T17:46:44.854Z · LW · GW

Okay--no Hitler is fine--but what is the exact scenario? With no Hitler--there is no rise of the Nazi party? Remember--Hitler didn't start the National Socialists--but he did help make them popular.

So what happens with the history of Europe in the 1920's and 30's... I think to answer any question here, you have to play out the scenarios and figure out what's going on...

I'll take a scenario--Hitler is killed in WW1 and never exists as a major figure..

Changes this would effect... 1920's.. German National Socialists in Bavaria are less popular than they are--they still exist--but not much happens with them and the remain one of the 50 parties trying to gain power. Germany still engages in military exchange with SU--Treaty of Rapallo (sp?) still exists Germany and rest of nations go through awfulness of early 1920's and then Locarno seems to fix things a bit. Streseman and the nationalist type parties might be a bit stronger without national socialists having a charismatic leader... but prolly not strong enough to dislodge the Social democrats. Depression hits like everything else--and German economy tanks..

Now--here's where the question comes--Germany survived the Depression better than a lot of other places--as the Nazis--when they got in power--totally boosted up the public works expenditures a lot.... but that happened post 1933, I believe...

What happens in 1930's Germany without the Nazis.. Hjalmar Schacht really was the smart econ dude under the Nazis--and he was one of the more "sane" people in it--in that his goal was to help the economy through exports and trade--something that was then quashed by Hitler in the late 30's with his Autarchy policies...

So--without the Nazis--does some sort of rightish-military-big-business party with Schacht in it become dominant? if so--who do they ally with? Do they stick with trying to get back at France--or do they worry more about Growing Soviet power? Without the Nazis--do the French Rightists (who were not powerless) find an alliance with German Nationalists to get back at those nasty commies who won't pay back all the money the French lent the Russians?

Or does Germany keep its anti-French bias--and make a more serious play to be allied with the UK? Without Hitler pushing the submarine stuff so hard--and trying to piss off the Brits with a bigger Navy--do they work out an arrangement with the Brits and offer themselves as a Continental bulwark against the growing socialism of France and the Soviet Union?

Also--who leads this Germany--people like Stresemann? or more military oriented folks? Eventually--if Germany pulls its economy out again with big public works--there is still the issue of Re-militarizing the rhineland--which Hitler just did without thought--could other Germans have done so? Maybe they try to align with Britain--and get their ok to do so--or do they sign a re-affirmed Locarno and pledge only defensive measures?

These are the kinds of questions to ask first before going further. Any long term ideas are going to be grounded in what happens at these periods. One could speculate that you'd still eventually get War--but it might even be a war between UK/Germany against SU in the 1940's as the SU tries to take over Poland... or maybe not?

Anyway.. thoughts from a Historian (of Technology) who spends a lot of time thinking about alternate european history..