Comment by void on How to tell apart science from pseudo-science in a field you don't know ? · 2012-09-02T21:03:04.229Z · LW · GW

Observe advocates. An idea only with stupid advocates probably is stupid itself. If you notice someone smart applauding it, look closer. In not popular ideas with few adherents it's probably best to examine the inventor. Don't look to supposed experts as you have no way of evaluating their knowledge.

Comment by void on [Link] Reddit, help me find some peace I'm dying young · 2012-08-18T21:38:15.243Z · LW · GW

This is disgusting.

She's just one human. There's no reason to think she's exceptional. Just another average human being. Yet, she is arrogant enough to beg for money for a chance to be saved.

One dose of a pneumococcal vaccine costs $3.5.

M = Mortality due to pneumococcal disease in children under 5 years of age in Kenya is 323/100k.

Life expectancy in Kenya is 63.07.

GDP (PPP) per capita is $1,746.

Now, it's obvious that these aren't independent variables, but we can assume that, if anything, vaccination will increase both life expectancy and gdp pc, so, for simplicity, we can do a very conservative calculation and assume they're going to be constant.

EP = Expected productivity of one 5 year old Kenyan children till death = $1746*(63-5) = $101,268

C = Cost per 100k vaccinated children = 100k*$3.5 = $350k

Return on vaccination = EP*M/C = $32,709,564/$350k = 93.45 = 9345%

Now, the rate of return for the freezing of this girl:

Female life expectancy in USA = 81.05

GDP (pc) is $48,386

Girl's expected productivity = (81-23)*$48,386 = $2,806,214

Return on cryogenics ASSUMING 100% probability of success = $2806214/$35000 = 80.17 = 8017% The real expected value is probably highly negative, but I shall abstain from estimating the cryogenics' probability of success.

This calculation is extremely conservative. Especially because the time value of money is completely ignored.

In other words, this is almost surely a bad investment. In other words, if you give her even $1, you're a complete idiot. Excepting the case where you know her personally.

Even if you're, for example, a white supremacist, and the idea of dying Kenyan children makes you happy, there're many ways where you could help white people in a much, much more effective way.

I hope that this is a scam. Not because I care about some bitch, but because the less money the idiots have, the more just the world is, and the money in the scammer's hands is likely to be used much more wisely.