Comment by Yaakov A Sternberg (yaakov-a-sternberg) on Sam Altman's sister, Annie Altman, claims Sam has severely abused her · 2023-11-18T04:09:06.656Z · LW · GW

1. There isn't a shred of evidence for her accusations.
2. He was just 13 years old (undeveloped PFC).

Saying "Annie has not yet provided what I would consider direct / indisputable proof that her claims are true" is a gross understatement. Not only isn't there "direct / indisputable proof", there isn't a shred of evidence to support her accusation, and in fact there are aspects of the claim that seem rather dubious (such SA getting her shadowbanned "across all platforms except onlyfans and pornhub", which aside from being difficult to pull off, seems inconsistent with him promoting her podcast).

This is likely why the accusations have not garnered attention. Given how huge a story this would be, it seems unlikely that there haven't been reporters that have tried to corroborate her story (and apparently were unable to do so).

Comment by Yaakov A Sternberg (yaakov-a-sternberg) on Experimental evidence of the value of redundant oral tradition · 2023-04-23T09:32:52.949Z · LW · GW

1. A large # of people "telling a story" has very little intrinsic value (however, this is not the Kuzari argument).
2. A large # of people claiming to be eyewitnesses does have significant value (also not the Kuzari argument).
3. A chain of a large # of eyewitnesses (as in the case of the Kuzari argument), falls somewhere in between. 
4. However, there are many other (far more) crucial factors such as:
   1. The nature of the claim (e.g. plausibility, self-serving, compatibility with other information)
   2. The amount of time & conditions (e.g. peaceful/tumultuous) thru which the tradition has passed.
   3. The number of links in the chain
   4. The quality/reliability of the links in the chain

 

In the case of the Kuzari argument (which is the underlying background the post), we're dealing with:

• a supernatural claim;
• a narrative that does not fit with other known information (not just in the exodus narrative, but the biblical narrative in general);
• a huge gap of time (~1,000 years from the claimed Sinai Theophany c. 1300 BC to the 2nd temple era, which included 2 exiles and returns) during which, not only is there no evidence of a widespread belief in the Sinai theophany, there is evidence against the notion, not only archeologically, but even from the biblical narrative itself. This leaves plenty of time for some event that was:
  a. natural (e.g. earthquake, volcano, etc.), and/or
  b. experienced by a small number of people
  to evolve into a mass theophany.