Comment by ylva on Probability is in the Mind · 2013-04-22T23:30:09.407Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

I'm sorry, why isn't the prior probability that you say "why yes, I am holding the ace of spades" = 1/4?

Edit: unless you meant "draw a pair", in which case yes, the ace of spades would show up in three out of six possible pairings.

Comment by ylva on Radical Honesty · 2013-04-22T12:37:04.367Z · score: -1 (3 votes) · LW · GW

So what you are saying is, we should all be Aspies?

Sounds good to me.