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How can I distinguish between reflective attention and common attention?
Exocortex is what you need.
There are methods to remember things better, to wake up at a specific time, to make unconscious mind work for you. The last one may be disputable technique, because there are still debates regarding work of unconscious mind. But you do not need tulpa for that.
By the way, I have some well-detailed characters from role-playing game of mine, they act much like tulpas but without visual image in surrounding environment. I just have their pictures and appearances in mind. Another difference is that the most of them do not know about me, because they live in my imaginary world. But this world is very similar to ours, so I can easily provide one of them access to the LessWrong site and this character can even participate in conversations. Also I can arrange a meeting with me as an imaginary copy or even provide them information that they are imaginary characters.
Do you mean handbook published in 2004? And could you please describe in a few words why does it suck?
This link maybe? http://lesswrong.com/meetups/ You can follow it clicking on the “Nearest Meetups” title on the right column.
I think we should plan set of topics to discuss. I prefer to start with the same topics that were discussed on the regular meet ups.
Video and audio conferences are good if you have 3-5 people. But I think we will have more participants, so multiple IRC rooms devoted to the different topics should work better.
Would you like to contact with me and share views and information regarding meet up organization? I also want to bring CFAR workshop in my city and we conduct practical gatherings all the time.
Your meet up is planned for the year 2019, can you correct it?
I would like to help to create LessWrong communities in the Russian speaking countries, can anyone provide me with site visitor statistics from Russia and CIS?
That would be great if you come! Here is information regarding Russian visas. You can easily get visa invitation from tourist company and I can provide with all information about Russia.
Can she visit Moscow? We have a lot to discuss with CFAR representative.
Well, liar's dice has optional rule: drink a cup of something if you lose.
Have you tried prediction markets in any form? We are going to introduce it to our meetup group and use it as calibration practice.
Thank you for your notice, there were not very clear description, I have edited it. Here is description for the both games:
In game A you will receive a money prize if your statement is true, in other words if the correct number is between your upper and lower bounds.
In game B you generate random number between 0 and 1, and you win if the random is between zero and your credence (0.9, for example). I can say that you win with probability equals to your credence.
If you prefer game A, you may be underconfident; if you prefer game B, you may be overconfident.
If you are overconfident, you may have 90% credence for some interval, but after repeated tests of your estimation the value you estimated will fall into your interval only in 80% or 70% or 60% of tests. So you will likely choose game B, because it has a higher chance of a payoff.
If you are underconfident, you will likely assign 70% credence, but after tests you will get 90% or 80% hit ratio. In this case you will likely choose game A, for the same reason.
Have I answered your question?
Thank you, I think current title will suffice.
Chapter 62:
Wasn't test to check Harry's Time turner too simple? Harry cheated very easy, he just used another person with Time turner. But this is grave matter, escape from Azkaban, and professors had chosen this kind of test...
I made an EPUB file from all these posts to read at my e-reader. If someone else is interested, you can download it here: Overcoming bias selected.epub
Yes, that is correct. We are also going to post more detailed reports in Russian on Russian forum.
Please correct the link to the mailing list. Correct link is http://groups.google.com/group/vancouver-rationalists
This article can be used as additional source of motivation for people, who are going to learn foreign language.
I see, thank you.
Could you give an example of “ritual-meta-discussion”?
Plus, how do you explicitly say something "this scene has been illustrated 5 times already, but all of them were crappy, so I'd like one more illustration of the same scene, this time a better one" without offending and thus discouraging the fanartists that made the earlier art?
I do not want to say it to anybody. I think about creating the list of possibilities.
It seems to me that fanartists already have some idea of what they are inspired to illustrate -- and the scenes that personally interest them are the scenes they're most likely to illustrate well.
You are right, but artist may also consider the scenes most interested by readers, who aren't artists. For example, some artists come to “Fan Art” section at hpmor.com and see several links to illustrations. They may think not to draw the same scenes because it is already drawn, but to find something different. And they see a link to our list and think “I like the scene from chapter 46 which is mentioned in the list, people also want it to be illustrated, let's draw something.”
I am, but only the beginner.
I also think that the list of such a suggestions will not be “what people should do” list but “what people could do, if they want to help” one.
I know, but don't you think there could be more?
They have another interesting plan on their site:
It is supposed that as a result of the planned work at the end of 2015 the project’s team will elaborate the full detailed description of the mechanisms of human brain. It will be possible to use this description to make (in yrs. 2018-2020) a full scale working analog of the human brain, based on technological (not biological) informational elements and devices.
http://2045.com/news/29053.html
So, just wait a bit, and you can get electronic brain. ^^ This reminds me of the predictions about number of genes in human genome:
Only a decade ago, most scientists thought humans had about 100 000 genes. When we analysed the working draft of the human genome sequence three years ago, we estimated there were about 30 000 to 35 000 genes, which surprised many.
After project was finished, scientists found only about 20 000 genes.
Small group of people, including me, translates sequences to Russian. We already have our own site, http://lesswrong.ru/ , so if anyone wants to help us, you are welcome!
If you are looking for Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality in Russian, another group translates it also: http://hpmor.ru/
A small idea, how time turners may work, or how it can be described in the future chapters:
Let's assume that real travel back in time is not possible. But we can have mysterious source of magic somewhere, and this thing can be supercomputer or (and) superintelligence capable of correct prediction of events that will happen in some limited volume of space and time. And this superbeing can predict activation of time turner in future, predict mental and physical state of the person who will do that and create a copy of this person in the present time. "Magic" happens.
P.S. Wild guess: source of magic or one of its parts is somewhere inside Azkaban rock, just because time turners does not work there, which may be self defence mechanism.
I agree about giants, they may lack of training to use wizard's spells, but some of their abilities may be magic-based, for example, spell resistance, extra strength (comparing with non-magical creatures of the same size), maybe some regeneration ability.
Harry can make some broad study of non-human blood and find something interesting.
Chapter 23:
If Harry is correct about how magic is inherited, this idea can bring some interesting issues in future chapters. Short resume of Harry's idea: there are recessive magic gene (M) and dominant non-magic gene (N). Magic users have two magic genes (MM), and pair of them are needed to work with magic. Squibs have one magic gene (MN) and muggles have two non-magic genes (NN) all of them can't do magic.
First, how squibs appears? Actually people with MN genes can live between muggles because muggle-borg wizards and witches are born from parents with MN genes. But let's just do not call them squibs. Real squibs are born from couples of witch and wizard and both parents have MM genes. N gene can appear here as a result of mutation only.
Second, half-breeds exist. Magic-users can have children from giants, goblins, veela and, possibly, some other creatures. These half-breed can use magic, and there are two possibilities: they have MM genes or they have some m gene. m gene should be recessive gene, when appears with M gene, because according to HP wiki all known half-breeds can use magic. So half-breeds have MM or Mm genes.
What can Harry do with all these things? He can come with some eugenic proposal how to increase number of wizards, this may even help to make relationship with Lucius better. He can just find this M gene and connect it to the source of magic. But I'm not sure, that Harry will have time for all these, he may have more important goals. I hope he can delegate some of these studies to somebody else, for example, to Draco.
By the way, can Polyjuiced person become pregnant and give birth?
I look forward to description of general rules of magic in HPMOR, and maybe Harry can find some of that rules later in the book. This may be even better part than the episode with acorns.
And I agree, that is great book, mostly because it promotes scientific ideas.
Dumbledore just can know about Snape's schemes, and also want him to believe, that he doesn't know. If he consider Snape's game mostly harmless...
I can add, that there are more at least slightly religious people in Russia today, than 10-20 years ago. Transhumanism may be supported by people, who was graduated in USSR, but now Russia Orthodox Church becomes more influential and helps to support irrationality and biases. Science fiction in Russia is dominated by the fantasy book, which can't support any rational ideas and transhumanism.
But, there are also people, who have studied natural sciences in colleges and may want to become more rational and support, for example, cryonics.
I have also met some Japanese people, and I can say, that they prefer to be practical and even utilitarian in their life, and this can be seen as rational approach. Comparing with Russia, they have much more "user friendly" things in their daily life, for example, remote controlled WCs.
Could you clarify, what do you want to learn, and for what reason? I think I may help you with specific book or manuals.
You have mentioned "Presentation" as one of meetup topics. Could you please tell me, have you ever made or heard a presentation of some scientific discoveries and break-troughs at your meetups? For example, someone could read an interesting article in a magazine, and tell about this topic at the meetup. Or just talk about his or her own speciality and science interests. For me it seems to be useful and interesting kind of activity to do at rationalists' meetings.
Use ru.lesswrong.com if possible, or just create brand new eye-catching phrase in Russian, which will not be translation of "less wrong", because correct translation of this phrase will be long and counter-intuitive. For example: be-rational.ru, usebrain.su, мысли-правильно.рф (think correctly), напряги-мозги.рф (get smart), мозгоштурм.рф (brain storming) etc.
P.S. I have found http://lesswrong.ru/ at Translations list page, so let's use it.
That also can indicate something like "There is a community which prefer to be closed for new members and that's why they use some words that only they can understand clearly". I believe that the web-site with translations should be understood by people, who did not read lesswrong.com in English some time ago, and can not see familiar words. The more terms can be correctly comprehended by newcomers, the better for this rationalists community.
If you still need the translator, please have a look at this one: http://www.online-translator.com/Default.aspx?prmtlang=en
This made by the company, which specializes in machine translation from and to Russian language, so the result looks better than made by Google or Yandex translators.
One possible exercise:
In pairs or in groups one person is asked by instructor, what he or she wants to buy in near future. For example, the person wants new digital camera.
Then group should calculate full cost of this camera, including all accessories and expendables.
After that people in the group suggest alternative activities and expenses, based on this full cost of digital camera, what the person can buy instead of this camera. For example, the person can buy a bike and ride around, instead buy a camera and take pictures around.
Then the person, who wants this camera, can check all alternatives and find the best, Maybe the group can also discuss, why one alternative is better, and another one is worse. For example, will digital camera gives more pleasure, comparing with skateboard? Or usage of some of the proposed items will give more physical exercises and more health to the owner, instead of using another one.
When one person from the group will find some explanations or answers to the questions group discuss now, other people should check the rationality of this explanation: is it rational thinking, or is it bias? And one person can also check the reasoning of another person in the group in any time.
Another exercise: Group watch or read some news, proposed by instructor, then analyse the news. Group should discuss the following questions:
- Is it possible, that the event from the news was really happened?
- What details of this event prevent it from happening? What details show, that it looks like the genuine event?
- If we trace this event to the future and to the past, can we find the confirmations or refutations of the discussed event?
Could you specify location of the minicamp? Or suggest several possible locations? I just want to calculate trip time from San Francisco International Airport, I also hope it will be useful information for all applicants outside of USA, like me.