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Sorry but aren't we in a fast takeoff world at the point of WBE. What's the disjunctive world of no recursive self-improvement and WBE?
He posted on a twitter a request to talk to people who feel strongly here.
Yeah, re-reading I realise I was unclear. Given your claim: "by the time we get to 2000 in that, such AGIs will be automating huge portions of AI R&D,". I'm asking the following:
- Is the 2000 mark predicated on automation of things we can't envision now (finding secret sauce to singularity) or is it predicated off pushing existing things like AI R&D finds better compute or is it a combination of both?
- What's the empirical on the ground representative modal action you're seeing at 2025 from either your vignette (e.g. I found the diplomacy AI super important for grokking what short timelines were to me). I guess it's more asking what you see as the divergence between you and Richard at 2025 that's represented by the difference of 25 and 100.
Hopefully that made the questions clearer.
Sorry for a slightly dumb question but in your part of the table you set 2000 as the year before singularity and your explanation is that 2000-second tasks jump to singularity. Is your model of fast take-off then contingent on there being more special sauce for intelligence being somewhat redundant as a crux because recursive self-improvement is just much more effective. I'm having trouble envisioning a 2000-second task + more scaling and tuning --> singularity.
Additional question is what your model of falsification is for let's say 25-second task vs. 100-second task in 2025 because it seems like reading your old vignettes you really nailed the diplomacy AI part.
Also slightly pedantic but there's a typo on 2029 on Richard's guess.