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comment by jmh · 2020-03-08T18:07:36.990Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

While not an option to all, one thing that might provide another aspect to consider is the question of how well the virus does in hot, humid settings. I don't have a good sense and suspect that neither the cell biologists or medical world has a definitive answer here.

However, should that prove true then clearly coastal areas near equatorial latitudes seems promising as would a chase the sun (well summer) type approach.

comment by Lukas_Gloor · 2020-03-08T14:26:57.023Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)
Exposure and expected infection rate (though in case this goes full pandemic I imagine this might not be that relevant)

I think it's likely that very warm countries will have it much easier (in theory) to contain outbreaks. I think the evidence we are seeing so far confirms this, but it's quite messy because there's some community transmission in Malaysia now, Singapore had community transmission (that now appears to be contained), and the numbers in Indonesia always look suspicious because expert models predicted that they should have caught a lot more than zero cases throughout February. (There have also been a few cases in India recently.)

My model is that even though self-sustaining outbreaks can happen in hot countries too, outbreaks there are much easier to contain because most of the infections will happen in closer, more indoorsy settings. Contact-tracing is easier if you have to mostly focus on business contacts (especially air-conditioned buildings), spouses, close relatives or roomates. Contact-tracing is hardest for contexts like public transport, stores, or restaurants.