Is anyone else worried about SOPA? Trying to do anything about it?

For those who were wondering, SOPA.

So I know we're not supposed to get into this on LW (politics, minds, death, etc), but I figure opposing the censorship of the internet is alright to do.

Is it possible to project likely consequences of this legislation's being passed? What are those consequences?

Based on the entertainment industry's typical behavior (eg, issuing a takedown notice to YouTube over a song supporting piracy that they did not own the rights to), I'd expect mass takedowns of all sorts of things as soon as the legislation passes. Possibly a full shutdown of YouTube, megaUpload, and other sites deemed to be "encouraging piracy", but I wouldn't offer strong odds on that.

Additionally, you can expect other nations to get sick of random things being pulled from the DNS registries (basically huge lookup tables that tell your computer what to do with things like "www.lesswrong.com"; changing these to a "this page has been removed" page is the SOPA method-of-choice for taking a site down). An independent DNS network will probably be created, segmenting the internet into a US internet and a global internet. The final result (assuming the legislation stays in place) will be a US internet that only contains content the RIAA et al. approve of; everything else will be blocked (although easily circumvented by switching to a non-government-controlled DNS server). Remind you of anyone else?

Assuming they are on net undesirable, what can be done that would be most likely to prevent its passage?

Scream loudly at your local representatives (if you are a US citizen), and encourage others, particularly the young voters who are very attached to the internet, to do the same. If you're not a citizen, try writing someone in a diplomatic position to protest the censoring of a global resource for the benefit of US corporate interests (everyone uses the same DNS servers at the moment, so you'll be seeing the results whether you live here or not).

If you're feeling technical, you could try switching over to an alternate DNS provider like OpenDNS or DynDNS (I make no guarantees on how well they function; I've never tried them personally but hear they work alright) so that you'll still be able to access forbidden domains. [EDIT: I have since been informed that OpenDNS is not fighting SOPA, and that using an alternate DNS server will cause DNSSEC to stop working properly for you, so this might not be a good option.] Alternately, you could look up the IP addresses of places you visit that are likely to be forbidden and keep them somewhere; just type them into your address bar (eg, htttp://thepiratebay.org is the same as 194.71.107.15) and you won't need to route through a DNS server to get to the sites (or so I understand, people say it worked during the last round of takedowns).

And, of course, spread information on how to circumvent the DNS takedowns (if you're not worried about getting in trouble for doing it). If the measures taken are seen to be both ridiculous and ineffective, the government is more likely to consider repealing the bill after it goes into effect (see, for instance, the proposed defunding of the TSA).

EDIT: I'd like to clarify that I don't think much is going to stop Congress from passing this bill (unless they actually listen to the experts they're bringing in next year), which is why I focused more on ways to deal with it passing than on ways to stop it. Complaining to your representative is still a good idea though; when things go wrong, they'll remember "those eggheads yelling at us not to pass this" and maybe listen next time.

EDIT 2: I'd also like to clarify that I don't mean to imply that China and Iran are inherently evil or something, but I figured it was a safe assumption that most people on LW would disagree with their censorship policies.

My prediction is that SOPA and PIPA will pass in pretty much their current form (if they haven't already); the "write your Congressman" campaigns led by EFF, Wikipedia, and others, will have a negligible effect at best. However, I also predict that, in practice, SOPA will not be used to shut down any major website, such as Twitter or Youtube, though a non-trivial number of startups, personally hosted blogs, and other smaller websites will be taken down. Instead, the media industry will forge a deal with Google, Twitter, Facebook and other website providers, wherein the media industry receives an easy mechanism to take down whatever content they want at the click of a button -- in exchange for a promise to never use the SOPA nuclear option against the website provider (*).

I also predict, though with lower probability, that at least one major court challenge will be brought up against SOPA/PIPA shortly after its inception. Should such a challenge be brought, I expect to see a drawn-out legal battle that spans several years and ultimately goes nowhere (other than a settlement, perhaps).

Once SOPA passes, I expect alternative DNS providers to put up a token resistance, then fall in line, bowing down to "financial incentives", previous obligations, and outright legal intimidation. Alternative network infrastructure, such as Tor or Freenet or some new tool, will see a minor surge in popularity. If they really do take off (which I doubt), they will be quickly shut down in the name of fighting piracy, but an underground community of alternative network users will always exist.

I am very, very certain, however, that the average American internet user (and voter) will neither notice SOPA, nor care about it one way or the other.

(*) UMG claimed to have such a deal already in place, but it looks like they lied.

Make sure you know which "SOPA" you're referring to. This piece of legislation has undergone significant change from the version that sparked popular outrage.

Added after reading some other comments: if you've made cynical predictions about SOPA's progress through Congress or its effects in the real world, don't forget to update your beliefs on the eventual outcome. Write this prediction down somewhere.

Yes, I'm worried, but I'm not sure if there's anything we (as LW) can do about it. Writing/calling/etc. campaigns only work in mass, which, let's be honest, we aren't. Which is why I hope Wikipedia does something. Shutting down Wikipedia for a day would get everyone's attention. But it doesn't look like they'll do that.

Behold the power of trying: Boycott of Godaddy forces them to stop supporting SOPA.

There is nothing we can do politically about SOPA. If it gets blocked it will be back again in 6 months even worse (as has been happening for the last few years).

Even so, I'm not worried. The internet interprets censorship as damage and routes around it. The hackers that built the internet and keep it running are much smarter and work much faster than the legislators. Short of becoming a china-level dictatorship, there is really nothing the mafiaa can do to stop it. The internet is here to stay.

On Wikipedia, people including Jimbo Wales are discussing strategies as extreme as blanking the entire site (except for an explanatory message) to get people's attention, and thereby perhaps incite them to action, such as calling their Congressional representative.

Wow. They actually followed through with it. Wikipedia is down!

I predict that the US Supreme Court will get involved soon after they try censoring ANY website not known exclusively as a place where stuff gets pirated, and rip the culprits a new one. The American political climate doesn't look NEARLY rotten enough to put up with this; all the lobbying for SOPA has simply been interacting with its most corrupt, out-of-touch part so far.