What price would you pay for the RadVac Vaccine and why?

post by bgold · 2020-08-22T00:17:56.155Z · score: 18 (7 votes) · LW · GW · 1 comments

This is a question post.

I have been following with interest the RadVac team and their synthetic peptide based intranasal vaccine. They have published a protocol for making and taking the vaccine as well as a list of potential risks (on pg. 9 of the white paper).

How much would you pay for the RadVac vaccine? If you wouldn't use it - e.g. because you feel it's ineffective/risky - please say so and optionally put a negative number. And why would you pay that amount? An example of the type of model I'm looking for is $XX because you expect it would be effective at cutting your risk of COVID-19 by YY%, or because you think it might be dangerous you wouldn't take it at all.

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comment by romeostevensit · 2020-08-22T03:19:31.933Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

Thinking about this is somewhat interesting. I noticed I was going to gloss over it after reading and then noticed, no, wait, given the costs I'm currently paying to avoid getting sick I shouldn't dismiss something like this due to status quo bias etc. On looking at the white paper, the potential benefit drops a lot for me since the benefit is uncertain enough that it wouldn't enable changed behaviors. So this would purely be the case of trading off the concrete costs for tail risk reductions. I think the next step would be to establish some sort of reference class in order to try to make it comparable to other risks like in the covid risk calculator.